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James_Miller comments on In order to greatly reduce X-risk, design self-replicating spacecraft without AGI - Less Wrong
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It might not be causal, but you can still update as you can in the smoking lesion problem.
They are not analagous. In the smoking lesion problem the lesion causes a desire to smoke, and therefore wanting to smoke is evidence for updating your probability of getting cancer, which the smoking lesion also causes.
In this case there is no causal connection between building radio transmitters or self-replicating machines and mitigation of causal risks that are likely to underlie the great filter, so no you don't get to update.