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pengvado comments on Causal decision theory is unsatisfactory - Less Wrong
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That strategy is optimal if and only if the probably of success was reasonably high after all. Otoh, if you put an unconditional extortioner in an environment mostly populated by decision theories that refuse extortion, then the extortioner will start a war and end up on the losing side.
Yes. And likewise if you put an unconditional extortion-refuser in an environment populated by unconditional extortionists.