KnaveOfAllTrades comments on You’re Entitled to Everyone’s Opinion - Less Wrong

25 Post author: satt 20 September 2014 03:39PM

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Comment author: satt 20 September 2014 03:38:21PM *  7 points [-]

I'm curious about the effectiveness of my post's central gimmick. I invite anyone who's read the post and hasn't looked at any of the data linked at the end of it to take this poll.

In each pair of opposing claims, which claim do you find more likely?

[Edit: LW's posting interface stripped out the "start='7'" attribute in the second half of my post's list, so it's re-numbered claims 7 to 12 as claims 1 to 6. Pretend the second half of the list starts at 7.]

Claims 1 & 7: harms and benefits from scientific research.

Claims 2 & 8: adult Republican/Democrat (non-)identification.

Claims 3 & 9: young vs. middle-aged adults on abortion.

Claims 4 & 10: young vs. middle-aged on the Vietnam War.

Claims 5 & 11: young vs. old on Vietnam War protesters.

Claims 6 & 12: smokers' (non-)regret.

Into which kind of culture are you most assimilated?

Submitting...

Comment author: KnaveOfAllTrades 20 September 2014 03:59:58PM *  2 points [-]

Oops, I didn't actually read 7 and assumed it was public opinion had grown more positive. Given the two choices actually presented, I'd say 7 more likely.

Edit: Relative credences (not necessarily probabilities since I'm conditioning on there being significant effect sizes), generated naively trying not to worry too much about second-guessing how you distributed intuitive and counterintuitive results:

1:07 : 33:67
2:08 : 33:67
3:09 : 67:33
4:10 : 40:60
5:11 : 45:55
6:12 : 85:15

Comment author: satt 20 September 2014 05:51:03PM 3 points [-]

(Couple of side notes inspired by your edit.)

I considered asking for people's credence in each claim with probability polls, but reckoned that'd discourage responses, due to the extra effort needed to ensure coherence. (With 1 vs. 7, for instance, one would also have to think about the probability that neither claim's true.)

When distributing the pairs across the lists, I had R flip six virtual coins to decide whether to swap the places of each pair after I'd written them. So it should be nice & random, making second guessing unnecessary...although I guess no one else can be 100% sure I'm telling the truth here!

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