Comment on Superintelligence Reading Group 2: Forecasting AI

Tue, 23 Sep 2014 14:18:10 GMT

The experienced cake bakers aren't the most relevant experts (within your imagination) only because you imagine that 1: there's more relevant experts in general predicting, and 2: cake baking is sufficiently simple (in your imagination or the past, not in the real world where the cake baking got automated and the true "cake bakers" of today are experts in industrial automation, creating the future of cake baking just as we speak about it) that lack of expertise in cake baking is not a sufficient impediment for the former.

None of that is true for the AI - there seem to be no good experts on predicting that sort of thing in general, and a subject is difficult enough that such experts, if they existed, would be more than sufficiently handicapped by their lack of knowledge as to be worthless.

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