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SteveG comments on Superintelligence Reading Group 2: Forecasting AI - Less Wrong
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We need to chart as many plausible pathways as we can think of for algorithmic and neuromorphic technologies, and for specific questions within each AI sub-domain.
Thank you. To be clear, you think these are the most promising approaches to predicting the event we are interested in (some better specified version of 'human-level AI')?
How expensive do you think it would be to do this at the level of detail you are suggesting? Who would ideally do it?
We'll have a start-up phase where we specify the project, select software and brainstorm some model templates.
After that, we'll be able to get a better handle on costs.
We're talking about a serious scientific effort with dozens of people.
Fortunately, we can begin with less, and we can get quite far.
People with experience in Bayesian forecasting need to work with academic, industry and government experts in AI sub-domains and computer hardware.
I envision a forecast calibration and validation process, and a periodic cycle of updates every 1-3 years.