leplen comments on Superintelligence Reading Group 2: Forecasting AI - Less Wrong

10 Post author: KatjaGrace 23 September 2014 01:00AM

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Comment author: leplen 24 September 2014 03:09:29PM 7 points [-]

The question isn't asking when the best time for the AI to be created is. It's asking what the best time to predict the AI will be created is. E.g. What prediction sounds close enough to be exciting and to get me that book deal, but far enough away as to be not obviously wrong and so that people will have forgotten about my prediction by the time it hasn't actually come true. This is an attempt to determine how much the predictions may be influenced by self-interest bias, etc.