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shminux comments on I may have just had a dangerous thought. - Less Wrong
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Comments (41)
10:1 it is not as dangerous as you think and 1:1 it's common enough to be on Wikipedia.
After hearing the idea, I believe that it is not at all dangerous. However, I think the general strategy of being more cautious than you think you have to be whenever you think you have a dangerous idea is a good one. If shminux's comment made you feel any negative emotions associated with being too cautious, I would like to cancel those out by applauding your choice to err on the side of caution.
Same here. However I advised Eitan to not make a post about it, because the potential, however small, for negative publicity ("look what these crazy LWers think up") clearly outweighs the potential benefit (vanishingly tiny). I suppose a question in the open thread would be OK. The thought is neither very original nor particularly interesting.
i absolutely agree here.
Out of curiosity, did you make this recommendation before or after reading jimrandomh's comment? I ask because I think that his comment would have caused me to have an "appear to be even more cautious" bias.
So should I or should I not message you?
While he might be right about it being less dangerous than you think, he did not have sufficient information to take 10:1 odds, and commenting as he did signals low caution. Unless there is some point specifically in his favor, you probably should not message him.
A few notes:
That said, I tend to agree that there are plenty of other people on this forum better qualified to evaluate if an idea is dangerous. However, the odds (here it is, again) of Eitan's idea needing high qualifications to evaluate are tiny.
I don't think there should be a difference. In practice the friction of actually making the bet is generally too high to bother, but in principle if you're giving odds you should be willing to make a small bet at (slightly better than) those odds.
Already did, so fingers crossed. :)
Feel free.