Fantastic post, I think this is right on the money.

Many more Newcomblike scenarios simply don't feel like decision problems: people present ideas to us in specific ways (depending upon their model of how we make choices) and most of us don't fret about how others would have presented us with different opportunities if we had acted in different ways.

I think this is a big deal. Part of the problem is that the decision point (if there was anything so firm) is often quite temporally distant from the point at which the payoff happens. The time when you "decide" to become unreliable (or the period in which you become unreliable) may be quite a while before you actually feel the ill effects of being unreliable.