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owencb comments on Polymath-style attack on the Parliamentary Model for moral uncertainty - Less Wrong
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My reading of the problem is that a satisfactory Parliamentary Model should:
Since bargaining in good faith appears to be the core feature, my mind immediately goes to models of bargaining under complete information rather than voting. What are the pros and cons of starting with the Nash bargaining solution as implemented by an alternating offer game?
The two obvious issues are how to translate delegate's preferences into utilities and what the disagreement point is. Assuming a utility function is fairly mild if the delegate has preferences over lotteries. Plus,there's no utility comparison problem even though you need cardinal utilities. The lack of a natural disagreement point is trickier. What intuitions might be lost going this route?
I think there's a fairly natural disagreement point here: the outcome with no trade, which is just a randomisation of the top options of the different theories, with probability according to the credence in that theory.
One possibility to progress is to analyse what happens here in the two-theory case, perhaps starting with some worked examples.
Alright, a credence-weighted randomization between ideals and then bargaining on equal footing from there makes sense. I was imagining the parliament starting from scratch.
Another alternative would be to use a hypothetical disagreement point corresponding to the worst utility for each theory and giving higher credence theories more bargaining power. Or more bargaining power from a typical person's life (the outcome can't be worse for any theory than a policy of being kind to your family, giving to socially-motivated causes, cheating on your taxes a little, telling white lies, and not murdering).
In the set-up we're given the description of what happens without any trade -- I don't quite see how we can justify using anything else as a defection point.