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That seems like a testable hypothesis. If statistics on deaths by pneumonia and similar illnesses are recorded, and aren't so high as to dwarf HIV deaths, then there should be a noticeable spike in those deaths during the HIV years. One could compare that spike to the U.S. to see if Cuba's HIV deaths were underreported relative to the U.S.
I think, anyway. I'm not a statistician, but it feels like it should work.
I'd guess that in poor non-African countries that's a very big if.