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DanielLC comments on Open thread, Sept. 29 - Oct.5, 2014 - Less Wrong
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Wouldn't there be proportionately more shots fired if there's more people they see? You'd get the same number of friendly fire casualties either way.
That would be a slightly less crude toy model, I guess. I would expect the truth to be somewhere in between -- e.g., soldiers have limited ammunition and limited ability to attend to everyone around them in a conflict situation, so the number of shots fired probably increases sublinearly with number of potential targets.
In case anyone was in any doubt: I have no knowledge of any of this stuff, have never served in any military force, etc.
Just because you think of a new factor driving it down and then a new factor driving it up doesn't mean you end up in the same place.
The model I was using is that every time you see a soldier, you randomly decide whether or not to fire. Under this model, adding enemy soldiers makes no change in friendly fire.
Whoops, looks like I missed the word "proportionally" up there. Sorry for assuming that you were being silly.