Brillyant comments on Questions on Theism - Less Wrong
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First of all, congratulations! These kinds of questions are extremely challenging to even ask from within certain philosophical frameworks, and the fact that you're here at all means that you've accomplished something exceptional. Further, by using the question of miracles specifically, you've focused on empirical, testable claims with verifiable consequences. The epistemology that you're associating with atheism or agnosticism is fundamentally the ability to ask exactly these questions, the habit of doing so reflexively, and the willingness to follow those questions to real answers.
The basic Bayesian response to the question of miracles isn't just "are they lying, or is there a God?" Ask the question a different way: in a hypothetical universe in which Christianity is false, how many claims of miraculous events do we expect? In a hypothetical universe in which Christianity is true, how many true (and false!) claims of miraculous intervention do we expect? Do we expect a difference in the kind of miracles that are claimed to occur? For example, we experience people claiming that God cured infertility or cancer, but never people claiming that God cured their amputation. It's an interesting discrepancy, and which universe is that most consistent with? Etc. Don't think about it in terms of picking apart each individual claim. Just ask yourself about an interventionist God in terms of your honest expectations for such a God, and consider the world-as-it-is in comparison. Use the miraculous as a prediction that can succeed or fail, rather than simply as an explanation that is immune to correction.
...but never people claiming that God cured their amputation.
Just did a google search on this; pulled up some Christians trying to explain why (didn't find anything convincing), some atheists claiming that this is a knockdown argument against God (to be fair, if true it seems pretty decisive) and a case of a Christian reporting that he saw an amputated ear regrown (they said it wasn't a a full ear that came back, but a small thing that looked somewhat like an ear, and hearing was restored).
Are you going to claim that they were lying/deceived? On the one hand, it would certainly explain why a full ear didn't come back. On the other hand, they claimed to have seen the patient's skin break, blood come out, and an "small, ear-like thing" grow out of the gap. I cannot imagine someone decieving themselves about that!
I'd be interested in seeing a link. At first blush, it sounds most likely to me someone lost their outer ear structure along with, perhaps, some actual functionality (presumably in a traumatic event). Then the remaining "stump" of an ear healed and functionality improved over time. Maybe a significant perceived improvement was experienced as something quite dramatic during a charismatic faith healing service?
Maybe it's something less malicious than that? Maybe they just projected their beliefs onto a circumstance? Maybe the story got a bit inflated in the repeated re-telling?
Couple other examples of similar miraculous healings:
Charles Templeton, one of Billy Graham's preaching partners, before his deconversion. I found this account on a blog, and I've read it elsewhere. (I found a more detailed account from Templeton's memoir here...but it might be more interesting to start with the account I've pasted.)
Interesting accounts since Templeton left the ministry. My my understanding, he did hold onto a belief in some sort of spiritual faith healing throughout his life, despite leaving the Christian faith.
It's hard to know what actually happened in these cases. In the case of the infant, it's my guess the child had something like this going on. Checking out the memoir account, the child received daily treatment and visited the hospital weekly. Also, notice the story in the New World was written four years after the event, something not mentioned in the blogger's account.
In the case of the woman with cancer, I don't know. It is my understanding spontaneous remission of cancer is possible. As far as the "electrical charge" Templeton felt, maybe he felt that as a result of the rather dramatic and emotional situation?
(Anytime I hear faith healing accounts, I always think. "Why don't they just set these faith healers loose in the world's hospitals??? Have them go room to room!")
My general sense is that there are improvements—sometimes dramatic improvements—in people's health that coincide with prayer. If it's a one-in-a-million chance and you pray for one million people, you're gonna see a miracle!
Further, I think people sometimes get a boost in adrenaline/confidence after being prayed for which perhaps masks their symptoms for a few days. In non-terminal cases, maybe they get out of bed and start eating right, exercising and being more active? Maybe their whole perspective changes and they become more positive and healthy?