Brillyant comments on Questions on Theism - Less Wrong
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As a former Evangelical Christian, I wonder if this isn't the crux of it all.
Of course it's possible real faith healings and resurrections have taken, and are taking, place somewhere on the globe. It's possible that these miracles are happening due to the power of a supernatural entity. And it's possible this supernatural dude is best described by the Christian Bible.
It's going to be difficult for you to dismiss these possibilities no matter how small because you've (presumably) been indoctrinated to believe in things like eternal conscious torment in hell, let alone the guilt/shame/fear associated with all sorts of "secular" worldviews and rational thinking. Indoctrination is very powerful, and it can wreak havoc with your emotions long after your rational mind has (all but) dismissed religion's claims as fairy tales.
The rest of LW has provided, and will provide, plenty of reasons to seriously doubt miracle claims. But religious memes have evolved to survive such skepticism—they are clever enough to avoid being pinned down...they escape and get passed on. They are hard to dismiss and tempting to believe in.
The reality is, there is some non-zero probability that the power of Jesus Christ through prayer raised someone, somewhere, from the grave. And this would provide some evidence of the veracity of Christianity...and this would make hell into a bit more realistic threat...and hell (at least in many Fundamentalist churches) is beyond the worst conceivable punishment...
So, for those who were indoctrinated, Pascal's Wager is a pretty good bet according to the simple math. Believe! Do anything you must do to avoid an infinitely bad eternity in hell! No matter how slight the probability, it makes sense to at least try to believe and "live according to God's plan." It's a mathematically sound wager. (Most Christians I talk to end up revealing Pascal's Wager as the basis for their belief if you dig a little bit. Most start off with flowery sounding stuff about "God's love", etc... but if you push beyond that, they paraphrase the Wager, even if they've never heard of Blaise Pascal.)
For those who don't "take religion seriously", it's pretty easy to make this bet. They just go with the flow and reap the social and psychological benefits of church and faith. If the church gets too demanding, they leave and find a church/denomination that is more accommodating to their lifestyle.
For those who can actually wrap their heads around the implications (hell, etc.) of a Universe ruled by the God of the Bible—for those who take that religion seriously—it's quite a difficult dissonance to resolve when rational thought collides with some of the fantastical claims of faith.
You seem to have compiled a pretty good-sized list of rational reasons to doubt...but you'll never prove God doesn't exist. And there will always be sophisticated sounding theological gymnastics available to provide reasons for why you just need more faith even though things don't seem to make much sense (i.e. God doesn't cure Ebola because..., God never raises someone from the dead in a developed country with pristine medical records and lots of evidence because..., God doesn't heal amputees because...).
I went through something like what you are experiencing. It's very difficult—anxiety and fear galore. After this will come the existential void/sigh of relief phase. Then some anger. Then it gets better. Check out Marlene Winell and Valerie Tarico. Good luck!
One more former extremely devout Christian (Evangelical 22 years, then Catholic 6 years). I'd like to add just one thought. If you consider only the likelihood or unlikelihood of the Christian God, you might be missing something important. (I was.) You need a theory to compare it against, that you can judge to be more likely or less likely.
For myself, I stayed Christian for years after devouring the material on LessWrong, acknowledging that in some ways my religion seemed to have a lot going against it, but lacking an alternative that I judged clearly better. Then one day I stumbled across an exposition of an atheist worldview that "clicked" in a way that no other had for me, and it switched me from devout Catholic to atheist in the blink of an eye. (Despite the consequences, the moment was pretty underwhelming, actually.) YMMV, of course, and your conclusion may vary also -- each of us can only judge the theories we encounter and only based on our own knowledge of the evidence.
Briefer: Comparing theories requires at least two. You're intimately familiar with one theory and are troubled by uncertainties, so it might relieve your uncertainty to learn more about the alternative theory.
What sort of presentation of atheism did you stumble across that made it so clear?
The switch flipped for me when I was reading Jim Holt's "Why Does The World Exist?" and spent a while envisioning and working out the implications of Vilenkin's proposal that the universe may have started from a spherical volume of zero radius, zero mass, zero energy, zero any other property that might distinguish it from nothingness. It made clear to me that one could propose answers to the question "Why is there something rather than nothing?" without anything remotely like a deity.