Unknowns comments on Questions on Theism - Less Wrong
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As C.S. Lewis would say-are they lying, are they mad, or are they telling the truth? People do lie sometimes, and perhaps my difficulty in letting go of Christianity despite a mountain of evidence against it is that my prior on people making up stories is too low. It would take an awful lot of psychosis to make someone believe that a leg had regrown, but again, people do go insane. But is there a way to get a sense of how likely/unlikely this is? With Pascal's Wager on the table, it's not enough to say there's ~40% chance Christianity is true, that's less than half, it's probably wrong. Rejecting it without constant fear would take near certainty that accounts like this one are fraudulant or deceived.
In this case the problem with it just being made up is that the witnesses seem too numerous and there seems to be too much extrinsic evidence, e.g. the records of his entrance into the hospital where the leg was amputated etc. However, it is still possible that it is simply an outlier -- a case of fraud even when fraud seems very unlikely.