gjm comments on Questions on Theism - Less Wrong
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So, a few observations on miracles.
There are miracle stories in every religious tradition and plenty of not-exactly-religious traditions. Unless there's some big difference in credibility -- which I'm not aware of any reason to think there is -- if you think "no smoke without fire" about one set then you should think the same about the others too. Which means you either have to believe in lots of different gods, or believe in one god and lots of evil spirits (or something) that just happen to do more or less the same sorts of miracle. (Or, I guess, believe that miraculous things happen but they're brought about by people's latent psychic powers or something, but that's pretty far from any religion's account of these things.)
When miraculous stories are investigated carefully, they consistently seem to evaporate. This happens even when the people doing the investigation belong to the religion that claims responsibility for the alleged miracle. For instance, consider something commonly cited as evidence for miracles: the shrine at Lourdes, to which pilgrims in their millions trek in the hope of miraculous healing. The Roman Catholic Church has a process -- to its credit, not a completely ridiculous one -- by which it certifies some healings there as miraculous. Although the process isn't completely ridiculous, it's far from obviously bulletproof; the main requirement is that a bunch of Roman Catholic doctors declare that the alleged cure is inexplicable according to current medical knowledge. As an example, the most recent case is of someone who had a tumour that went away after she bathed at Lourdes. (My understanding is that this is a thing that occasionally happens, miracle or no.) So, anyway, they appear to certify about one miracle per two million pilgrims, and I think pretty much all the pilgrims are there in hope of healing. One per two million! (If you think the alleged cures are so improbable that they couldn't happen naturally one time in two million, I have a bridge to sell you.)
In some situations (those in which a lot of these miraculous healings tend to occur) it really isn't difficult to get people to think more has happened than really has. Consider, for instance, the case of Peter Popoff. Lots of miraculous healings at his meetings -- but the whole thing was a fraud.
In general, unfortunately, people do lie. And make mistakes. And see what they hope or expect to see. And tales "grow in the telling", so that after a few steps of Chinese Whispers something sounds far more inexplicable and impressive than it ever really was.
You might try the following experiment: Talk to some of your Christian friends, and ask them for the most impressive examples they have personally experienced of miraculous interventions by God. If in fact there are no miracles, what you should expect is that (1) the things they cite won't, on the whole, be all that impressive; (2) the more careful and intelligent of them will have less impressive experiences; (3) the most impressive experiences will be the least verifiable.
Thanks for the detailed response!
There are miracle stories in many religious traditions, proving that false claims show up in purported scriptures all the time. I haven't heard about a lot of modern accounts of non-Christian miracles though; if you have, could you send me the links? That could be substantial evidence.
Good point. Do you have any details about the "evaporation"? What actually happened in some of these cases, and how they got mistaken for miracles?
Hmm, I'm going to research Peter Popoff now...
Chinese Whispers I can believe, but many of the miracle accounts I've heard were written by the eyewitnesses. Maybe my priors for human honesty and reliability are too high?
I'm far from being an expert on modern miracle claims, but here are a few examples. Hindu statues drinking milk. Sundry miracles at a Buddhist stupa. Kinda-sorta-semi-miracles from a Jewish rabbi. Kinda-sorta-semi-miracles from a Muslim.
This skeptic's webpage about miraculous healings mentions a few books that give a decent idea of the sort of evaporation I mean. I think I read one of them (the one by William Nolen) years ago; the author looked into a number of cases of alleged miraculous healings, and found that in every case there was no good reason to think anything miraculous had occurred.
And yes, I think your priors for honesty and reliability may be too high. Sorry about that.
Jewish miracles aren't evidence against Christianity-the same God is hypothesized to be behind both religions. The others are very interesting though, especially the stupa.
I am, as it happens, aware that Christianity and Judaism allegedly worship the same god! (Islam, too.) But it seems to me that if Christianity is right then present-day Judaism is importantly wrong and vice versa.
Of course it's perfectly possible for one religion to be right and adherents of another religion to see miracles happen when they pray (or perform religious rituals, or whatever). Whatever god(s) exist might be broad-minded; or there might be deceitful evil spirits associated with wrong religions; or the miracles might actually be wrought by worshippers' latent psychic powers, or something.
But the idea that if Christians experience what they think are miracles, then that's good evidence for Christianity seems to me to be somewhat weakened if it turns out that miracle claims occur at comparable rates in other religions.
[EDITED to add: I see this was downvoted, and it doesn't look as if all my recent comments are being downvoted so presumably whoever did it actually meant something by it. But it still looks OK to me; if whoever downvoted me would like to explain why then I'd be grateful. Thanks!]
I suspect it was downvoted because it contains the words "it's perfectly possible for one religion to be right".
That would be sad; I think I have a higher opinion of the LW readership than that. Still, I guess anyone can have a bad day.
It's a rather small sample size, isn't it? I don't think you can draw much of a conclusion from it.
Just finished the Quackwatch article. My prior for belief is dropping substantially.