I doubt anyone seriously believes this in the second sense.
How would you tell?
Especially gives that higher percentage of women in leadership position at companies is correlated with more successful companies as the McKinsey data shows. McKinsey speaks about the value of diversity and not directly about the pay of individuals but it still seems pretty much on the mark.
How would you tell?
I think that's a good question. For one thing, you don't really see people starting businesses aimed at taking advantage of this supposed pay differential. You wouldn't even necessarily need to discriminate to do so, just offer wages low enough that it's primarily women who end up working for you in a traditionally male dominated field.
Where are inexpensive lawn care companies, exterminator companies, auto garages, etc. which make a killing by relying on female labor? You never see them. Even in trades which are more balanced, lik...
LW readers have unusual views on many subjects. Efficient Market Hypothesis notwithstanding, many of these are probably alien to most people in finance. So it's plausible they might have implications that are not yet fully integrated into current asset prices. And if you rightfully believe something that most people do not believe, you should be able to make money off that.
Here's an example for a different group. Feminists believe that women are paid less than men for no good economic reason. If this is the case, feminists should invest in companies that hire many women, and short those which hire few women, to take advantage of the cheaper labour costs. And I can think of examples for groups like Socialists, Neoreactionaries, etc. - cases where their positive beliefs have strong implications for economic predictions. But I struggle to think of such ones for LessWrong, which is why I am asking you. Can you think of any unusual LW-type beliefs that have strong economic implications (say over the next 1-3 years)?
Wei Dai has previously commented on a similar phenomena, but I'm interested in a wider class of phenomena.