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gwern comments on Contrarian LW views and their economic implications - Less Wrong
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I said generational lead time because each iteration takes... one generation. If such procedures were enacted today, the first kids won't be educated and having an impact in the workforce until ~25 years from now. I personally rate a better than 50% chance that molecular nanotechnology capabilities will arrive sooner than that.
And what do you rate that each of an estimated 10,000 different genetic variants with different effects at different developmental windows will have been reverse-engineered by biologists/neurologists to the point where they can be safely applied to healthy humans and pass long-term clinical trials, especially given that the variants have to be found first and are applicable immediately to embryo selection if anyone wants to?
I think that's absurdly optimistic a view about the speed of applied medical therapies.
That's entirely not necessary when you have the tools to go in there and make targetted changes. In a post-human world, genetic code means very little.
We can make 'targetted changes' in adults' iodine levels. It doesn't do anything.