I can believe that most humans are victims to the hindsight bias and still fail to correct against the bias. The mental bias literature frequently demonstrates that knowing about a mental bias isn't enough to avoid it.
Umm, does that mean yes or no?
Also, why do you keep ignoring my question about entry-level McKinsey consultants? I'm willing to bet a modest sum that McKinsey is NOT choosing to reap the supposed cost savings from hiring primarily women.
Also, do you agree that your quote from the McKinsey study is NOT arguing to "save money by hiring women"?
I would say that a person can believe that most people suffer from hindsight bias in the second sense you described and still fail to correct for hindsight bias.
Again, does this mean yes or no?
I'm willing to bet a modest sum that McKinsey is NOT choosing to reap the supposed cost savings from hiring primarily women.
A big company can't simply have a stated policy: "We hire primarily women or we hire primarily men." A CEO can tell the HR department. There's a bias that makes you undervalue women, please correct for that bias.
A would consider a CEO who does such a thing to be honestly holding the belief that women are generally underpaid. On the other hand that doesn't mean that you see the company having 90% women as entry-level posit...
LW readers have unusual views on many subjects. Efficient Market Hypothesis notwithstanding, many of these are probably alien to most people in finance. So it's plausible they might have implications that are not yet fully integrated into current asset prices. And if you rightfully believe something that most people do not believe, you should be able to make money off that.
Here's an example for a different group. Feminists believe that women are paid less than men for no good economic reason. If this is the case, feminists should invest in companies that hire many women, and short those which hire few women, to take advantage of the cheaper labour costs. And I can think of examples for groups like Socialists, Neoreactionaries, etc. - cases where their positive beliefs have strong implications for economic predictions. But I struggle to think of such ones for LessWrong, which is why I am asking you. Can you think of any unusual LW-type beliefs that have strong economic implications (say over the next 1-3 years)?
Wei Dai has previously commented on a similar phenomena, but I'm interested in a wider class of phenomena.