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skeptical_lurker comments on Meetup : Bath: Introduction and PredictionBook - Less Wrong
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Do you know for certain if anyone is going to turn up, or are you just hoping? I'm definitely in bath the following weekend, so if it was postponed a week you could at least have one person turn up for certain :)
Currently expecting at fewest two others with joint probability >70%, so I'll still do the original day. But I'll bear the next week in mind; we might do two weeks in a row.
Sorry, I'm actually in bath the weekend after that (oops). My use of the word 'definitely' seems to not have been properly probability-calibrated in this case.