Comment on Open thread, Oct. 13 - Oct. 19, 2014

Wed, 15 Oct 2014 22:04:20 GMT

I kept in mind that highly confident predictions (98%+) are often miscalibrated and I still make that assertion.

Keeping something like that in mind does relatively little. Humans don't manage to correct for the hindsight bias based on keeping things in mind. Calibration actually needs feedback. You need to see how you mess up to get a feel for what a 95% prediction feels like.

95% feels like: I'm pretty certain that won't happen but I'm not fully certain.

But I have a pretty deep knowledge of computer science and AI research, I can very confidently say that current technology is a qualitative leap from Strong AI.

The whole point for the 5% prediction was that going from a state where no program is self modifying to a world with self modifying AI is a qualitative leap.

Discuss