PhilGoetz comments on Superintelligence 5: Forms of Superintelligence - Less Wrong
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Bostrom flies by an issue that's very important:
Back up. The population of Europe was under 200 million in 1700, less than a sixth of what it is today. The number of intellectuals was a tiny fraction of the number it is today. And the number of intellectuals in Athens in the 4th century BC was probably a few hundred. Yet we had Newton and Aristotle. Similarly, the greatest composers of the 18th and 19th century were trained in Vienna, one city. Today we may have 1000 or 10,000 times as many composers, with much better musical training than people could have in the days before recorded music, yet we do not have 1000 Mozarts or 1000 Beethovens.
Unless you believe human intelligence has been steadily declining, there is one Einstein per generation, regardless of population. The limiting factor is not the number of geniuses. The number of geniuses, and the amount of effort put into science, is nearly irrelevant to the amount of genius-level work accomplished and disseminated.
The limiting factor is organizational. Scientific activity can scale; recognition or propagation of it doesn't. If you graphed scientific output over the years in terms of "important things discovered and adopted by the community" / (scientists * dollars per scientist), you'd see an astonishing exponential decay toward zero. I measured science and technology output per scientist using four different lists of significant advances, and found that significant advances per scientist declined by 3 to 4 orders of magnitude from 1800 to 2000. During that time, the number of scientific journals has increased by 3 to 4 orders of magnitude, and a reasonable guess is that so did the number of scientists. Total recognized "significant" scientific output is independent of the number of scientists working!
You can't just add scientists and money and get anything like proportional output. The scientific community can't absorb or even be aware of most of the information produced. Nor can it allocate funds or research areas efficiently.
So a critical question when thinking about super-intelligences is, How does the efficiency of intelligence scale with resources? Not linearly. To a first approximation, adding more scientists at this point accomplishes nothing.
On the other hand, merely recognizing and solving the organizational problems of science that we currently have would produce results similar to a fast singularity.
What do you mean by this? We have plenty of composers and musicians today, and I'd bet that many modern prodigies can do the same kinds of technical tricks that Mozart could at a young age.
Good question, though doing technical tricks at a young age does not make one Mozart. I don't mean that we don't have 1000 composers as good as Mozart or Beethoven. I mean we don't have 1000 composers recognized as being that good. We may very well have 10,000 composers better than Mozart, but we're unable to recognize that many good composers.
This is conflated with questions of high versus pop art andd accidents of history. Personally, I'm open to the idea that Mozart represents a temporary decline in musical taste--a period between baroque and romantic when people ate up the kind of pleasant, predictable pop music that Mozart churned out. He wrote some great stuff, but I think the bulk of what he wrote is soulless compared to equally-prominent baroque or romantic music.