If you get diagnosed with an illness and are given the sensitivity and specificity of the test, being able to calculate your risk is valuable and many doctors get this wrong.
The trouble is that knowing the formula and being able to use it in daily life are two different things. On one of the LW censuses a significant portion got a question intended to test knowledge of Bayes rule wrong.
So other than learning the formula, how do you suggest that we learn to apply it, other than actually applying over and over, until one stops getting problems wrong? It seems that it's just a function of practice.
I have started to put together a sort of curriculum for learning the subjects that lend themselves to rationality. It includes things like experimental methodology and cognitive psychology (obviously), along with "support disciplines" like computer science and economics. I think (though maybe I'm wrong) that mathematics is one of the most important things to understand.
Eliezer said in the simple math of everything:
I want to have access to outlook-changing insights. So, what math do I need to know? What are the generally applicable mathematical principles that are most worth learning? The above quote seems to indicate at least calculus, and everyone is a fan of Bayesian statistics (which I know little about).
Secondarily, what are some of the most important of that "drop-dead basic fundamental embarrassingly simple mathematics" from different fields? What fields are mathematically based, other than physics and evolutionary biology, and economics?
What is the most important math for an educated person to be familiar with?
As someone who took an honors calculus class in high school, liked it, and did alright in the class, but who has probably forgotten most of it by now and needs to relearn it, how should I go about learning that math?