I don't have a good answer to that question.

There are studies of mental biases that suggest that a lot of people who can manage to apply the formula to textbook problem fails to apply it when you give them a political scenario. Most people fail to think clearly and motivated reasoning if the question becomes meaningful for them.

As far as I understand CFAR tries to teach bayes theorem in a way that people will actually use it. I however neither know their exact curriculum nor know the success rate of their approach.