Thanks for the write-up. I read it as you arguing that most any prediction can be interpreted in the Bayesian framework which, I think is a weaker claim.
However, there are issues with treating it as the only right way for it leaves a number of important questions unanswered. For example, how do you pick the prior? How do you assemble your set of possible outcomes (=hypotheses)? What happens if your forecast influences the result?
I also think that being uncomputable is a bigger deal than you make it to be.
I think that the claim that any prediction can be interpreted in this minimal and consistent framework without exceptions whatsoever is a rather strong claim, I don't think I want to claim much more than that (although I do want to add that if we have such a unique framework that is both minimal and complete when it comes to making predictions then that seems like a very natural choice for Statistics with a capital s).
I don't think we're going to agree about the importance of computability without more context. I agree that every time I try to build myself...
I have started to put together a sort of curriculum for learning the subjects that lend themselves to rationality. It includes things like experimental methodology and cognitive psychology (obviously), along with "support disciplines" like computer science and economics. I think (though maybe I'm wrong) that mathematics is one of the most important things to understand.
Eliezer said in the simple math of everything:
I want to have access to outlook-changing insights. So, what math do I need to know? What are the generally applicable mathematical principles that are most worth learning? The above quote seems to indicate at least calculus, and everyone is a fan of Bayesian statistics (which I know little about).
Secondarily, what are some of the most important of that "drop-dead basic fundamental embarrassingly simple mathematics" from different fields? What fields are mathematically based, other than physics and evolutionary biology, and economics?
What is the most important math for an educated person to be familiar with?
As someone who took an honors calculus class in high school, liked it, and did alright in the class, but who has probably forgotten most of it by now and needs to relearn it, how should I go about learning that math?