Even without all of that stuff, the price of oil can't predictably rise faster than the market interest rate. If it did, people would stop drilling for oil since it would be worth more if they wait. And taking any conservation efforts beyond that would be a bad idea (ignoring things like global warming), since you'd be better off drilling for oil now and just investing the money.
I think the case where the well has an approximately known size, extraction can be paused at low cost, there is no contract or law obligating "use it or lose it" for mineral rights, the extractor can deal with the lack of cashflow, you're right.
But there are certainly conditions where production can't be varied even if an increase in prices is clearly expected.
What is something you used to believe, preferably something concrete with direct or implied predictions, that you now know was dead wrong. Was your belief rational given what you knew and could know back then, or was it irrational, and why?
Edit: I feel like some of these are getting a bit glib and political. Please try to explain what false assumptions or biases were underlying your beliefs - be introspective - this is LW after all.