What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

Punoxysm

What is something you used to believe, preferably something concrete with direct or implied predictions, that you now know was dead wrong. Was your belief rational given what you knew and could know back then, or was it irrational, and why?

Edit: I feel like some of these are getting a bit glib and political. Please try to explain what false assumptions or biases were underlying your beliefs - be introspective - this is LW after all.

I find Eliezer's insistence about Many-Worlds a bit odd, given how much he hammers on "What do you expect differently?". Your expectations from many-worlds are be identical to those from pilot-wave, so....

I'm probably misunderstanding or simplifying his position, e.g. there are definitely calculational and intuition advantages to using one vs the other, but that seems a bit inconsistent to me.

There is at least one situation in which you might expect something different under MWI than under pilot-wave: quantum suicide. If you rig a gun so that it kills you if a photon passes through a half-silvered mirror, then under MWI (and some possibly reasonable assumptions about consciousness) you would expect the photon to never pass through the mirror no matter how many experiments you perform, but under pilot-wave you would expect to be dead after the first few experiments.

12pragmatist12y

I take Eliezer's position on MWI to be pretty well expressed by this quote from David Wallace: [...] The central case for Everettianism is that it is just plain old quantum mechanics, approached with the default realist perspective that most of us have no problem adopting for practically every other physical theory.* Every other "interpretation" out there adds on extra posits -- either ontological posits or epistemological posits that one doesn't usually hear when talking about other theories -- in order to solve a problem that doesn't actually exist, the so-called "measurement problem". So it's not just that MWI is simpler than the other theories; it's that the sole motivation for the added complexity in other theories -- the supposed inadequacy of bare quantum theory to account for our observations -- turns out to be bunk. Suppose someone argued that the general theory of relativity all by itself is inadequate. After all, how does the space-time metric know how to change in the presence of matter? There has to be some transcendent intelligent entity responsible for altering space-time whenever the distribution of energy in the universe changes, so we need to supplement the usual equations of GR with this additional theoretical posit in order to solve this problem. The correct response to this is that the supposed "problem" itself is a mistake stemming from unclear thinking, and that there is no need to posit this additional entity. And since the only motivation for positing this entity's existence was the pseudo-problem we have just rejected, it would be a mistake to believe that the entity exists. Wallace's (and I think Eliezer's) position is that the quantum interpretation debates are just sophisticated versions of this. * This is not to say that an anti-realist or instrumentalist attitude to scientific theories is a mistake, provided this attitude is a general philosophical position and not motivated by the supposed peculiarities of quantum mechanics. Howev

10Shmi12y

You really aren't. His logic is literally "it's simpler, therefore it's right" and "we don't need collapse (or anything else), decoherence is enough". To be fair, plenty of experts in theoretical physics hold the same view, most notably Deutsch and Carroll.

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What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

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What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

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