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shminux comments on What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong? - Less Wrong
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Interesting, thank you. I guess our views are not that far apart. And I also
though if someone comes up with an interesting, accurate and fruitful meta-model of partial existence, I'd be happy to change my mind.
Could it be because you are trying to apply them to a wrong domain? Would you agree that in a certain setting (a fantasy tale, a horror story) we can predict behavioral and visual features of the creatures inhabiting it with a fair degree of accuracy? Often more accurately than, say, a path and strength of a tropical storm being born in the Atlantic.
Yeah, but what we're using there is a theory of literary and mythological tropes. Those tropes certainly exist, and can be used to predict features of various books and movies. But I think it's misleading to characterize this as unicorns or ghosts existing. When people ordinarily say things like "I believe ghosts exist", they're not referring to predictable patterns in horror stories. I can tell you some things about what the world would be like if ghosts existed, and the world isn't that way.
If all you mean is that ghosts exist in certain fictional universes, then sure, they do. If someone asks me "Do ghosts exist in Middle Earth?" I'd say "Yes". If someone asks me "Do ghosts exist?" I'd say "No".
Right. When you extrapolate a model beyond its domain of validity, in this case from stories to the physically perceived world, the predictions of ghost models tend to fail pretty badly. So when people argue about what exists and what does not, all I see is "domain confusion".
I'm not at all sure what you mean when you say that all you see is "domain confusion". Do you mean that people in these arguments are talking past each other because they are each talking about different domains? Because I'm pretty sure that is not true in general. Or do you mean that people who say, for example, that ghosts exist are saying this because they are illegitimately extrapolating a theory that works in one domain into another? I don't think this is true in general either. Or do you mean something else?
Just to clarify: When, in ordinary circumstances, you encounter a debate between two people about whether ghosts exist, do you think one of them is right and the other is wrong?
Yes.
Usually yes, since people rarely argue whether ghosts exist in mythology. But a discussion about whether numbers exist is almost always a confusion about domains, since numbers exist in the mind, just like ghosts.
Ah, but then you're talking about a theory of "unicorns" rather than a theory of unicorns.
Not sure what you are saying. My guess is that you are implying that the quotation is not the referent, and unicorns are hypothetical magical creatures, while "unicorns" are vivid and very real descriptions of them in the stories often read and written by the local bronies. If so, then all I have to say that unicorn is not an accurate or fertile theory, while "unicorn" most definitely is. The difference is the domain of validity: can you go outside and find one running around, or can you mostly encounter them in books and movies? But that applies to most theories. If you go slow, Newtonian mechanics is adequate, if you study fast-moving objects, Newton gives bad predictions. Similarly, if you apply the predictions of the "unicorn" model beyond the domain of its validity, you are going to be disappointed, though occasionally you might discover a new applicable domain, such as a cosplay or a SFF convention.
The distinction is that a theory of "unicorns" is a theory that describes how and why other people (and probably you yourself) think about unicorns, while a theory of unicorns would explain actual unicorns. The latter would clearly fail as a theory, because you're never going to actually see a unicorn.
The same distinction doesn't apply to Newtonian mechanics, because Newtonian mechanics is a theory of mechanics, not a theory of how people think about mechanics.
On those grounds, I think it's quite reasonable to say that virtual particles are real, and "unicorns" are real, but unicorns are not real.
Not sure if you read anything I wrote in this thread. Note that both Newton's laws and "unicorn" laws are models. You don't find Newton's laws in Nature, just like you don't find "unicorn" laws. You don't find virtual particles, either, as they are but terms in the perturbative expansion of a particular quantum field theory (which is also a model, and not found in the wild).
Anyway, disengaging now.