What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

Punoxysm

What is something you used to believe, preferably something concrete with direct or implied predictions, that you now know was dead wrong. Was your belief rational given what you knew and could know back then, or was it irrational, and why?

Edit: I feel like some of these are getting a bit glib and political. Please try to explain what false assumptions or biases were underlying your beliefs - be introspective - this is LW after all.

I did the simpler analysis first and all the correlations between log GDP per capita and all the economic freedom index subscores were pretty negative (as was the correlation between log GDP per capita and GDP growth). Log GDP per capita was positively correlated with economic freedom subscores.

Edit: clarity

Thanks. A negative correlation between log GDP per capita and the freedom index surprises me; that falsifies my "poor country" confounder speculation.

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What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

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What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

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