Would you agree that in a certain setting (a fantasy tale, a horror story) we can predict behavioral and visual features of the creatures inhabiting it with a fair degree of accuracy? Often more accurately than, say, a path and strength of a tropical storm being born in the Atlantic.
Yeah, but what we're using there is a theory of literary and mythological tropes. Those tropes certainly exist, and can be used to predict features of various books and movies. But I think it's misleading to characterize this as unicorns or ghosts existing. When people ordinarily say things like "I believe ghosts exist", they're not referring to predictable patterns in horror stories. I can tell you some things about what the world would be like if ghosts existed, and the world isn't that way.
If all you mean is that ghosts exist in certain fictional universes, then sure, they do. If someone asks me "Do ghosts exist in Middle Earth?" I'd say "Yes". If someone asks me "Do ghosts exist?" I'd say "No".
When people ordinarily say things like "I believe ghosts exist", they're not referring to predictable patterns in horror stories. I can tell you some things about what the world would be like if ghosts existed, and the world isn't that way.
Right. When you extrapolate a model beyond its domain of validity, in this case from stories to the physically perceived world, the predictions of ghost models tend to fail pretty badly. So when people argue about what exists and what does not, all I see is "domain confusion".
What is something you used to believe, preferably something concrete with direct or implied predictions, that you now know was dead wrong. Was your belief rational given what you knew and could know back then, or was it irrational, and why?
Edit: I feel like some of these are getting a bit glib and political. Please try to explain what false assumptions or biases were underlying your beliefs - be introspective - this is LW after all.