Lumifer comments on Superintelligence 7: Decisive strategic advantage - Less Wrong

7 Post author: KatjaGrace 28 October 2014 01:01AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (58)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Apteris 28 October 2014 12:40:32PM *  1 point [-]

While not exactly investment, consider the case of an AI competing with a human to devise a progressively better high-frequency trading strategy. An AI would probably:

  • be able to bear more things in mind at one time than the human
  • evaluate outcomes faster than the human
  • be able to iterate on its strategies faster than the human

I expect the AI's superior capacity to "drink from the fire hose" together with its faster response time to yield a higher exponent for the growth function than that resulting from the human's iterative improvement.

Comment author: Lumifer 28 October 2014 03:22:55PM 2 points [-]

consider the case of an AI competing with a human to devise a progressively better high-frequency trading strategy.

A more realistic example would be "competing with a human teamed up with a narrow AI".

Comment author: Apteris 28 October 2014 04:36:41PM 1 point [-]

You're right, that is more realistic. Even so, I get the feeling that the human would have less and less to do as time goes on. I quote:

“He just loaded up on value stocks,” says Mr. Fleiss, referring to the AI program. The fund gained 41% in 2009, more than doubling the Dow’s 19% gain.

As another data point, a recent chess contest between a chess grandmaster (Daniel Naroditsky) working together with an older AI (Rybka, rated ~3050) and the current best chess AI (Stockfish 5, rated 3290) ended with a 3.5 - 0.5 win for Stockfish.

Comment author: Larks 01 December 2014 02:41:02AM 0 points [-]

I don't think an article which compares a hedge fund's returns to the Dow (a price-weighted index of about 30 stocks!) can be considered very credible. And there are fewer Quant funds, managing less money, than there were 7 years ago.