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Azathoth123 comments on Non-standard politics - Less Wrong
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If the US became completely isolationist, including pulling out all support from NATO and dismantling the nuclear umbrella, I'd predict the next Franco-German war in 20 years max (possibly sooner).
Edit: since it wasn't clear judging by the replies, I never said that the war would start with a German attack on France.
As a Frenchman with German friends, and family near the border, this seems outrageously stupid.
Why? There were Frenchman with German friends near the border before the two world wars as well.
I'm not saying that friendships would prevent a war, I'm saying that I know people on both sides of the border and that from both point of views the idea of war is ludicrous and unthinkable. The French don't hate the Germans, the Germans don't hate the French, and the kind of flag-waving gun-toting nationalism you'd get in the US or China or Russia is highly unfashionable.
Predicting Franco-German war on a French talk show would probably get you laughed off stage ...
Give them a decade or two under austerity, that will change.
Which what credence?
Why the heck should Germany want to wage war in the next 20 years on France?
Why should an isolationist US lead to a weaker EU instead of the EU coming more together?
Ehrr... France is a nuclear power. Wholly independently so - It isn't like the british deterrent which might get a lot more expensive without US support, the French nukes are French. Made in France, mounted on french rockets, in french submarines that are propelled by french reactors. "Has a firing solution for washington DC right along with the one for Moscow" is what I am saying. Nobody is invading them.
This seems very unlikely to me. Could you explain what you think would cause this war?
Probably the French getting annoyed at the real or perceived German takeover of their country through the banking system.