The "reasonable definition" is tricky to agree on
Absolutely -- and that's my point. You are after something tricky and subtle, not something simple like "no death penalty." So most societies will not have it. The answer to the question of whether we have any reason to believe [society] will not have [tricky and subtle thing] is "yes, the thing is tricky and subtle."
Such as?
It is super neat that the panopticon society is also operating in reverse, e.g. cell phones filming police being thugs. It's hard to work out counterfactuals properly, dystopian writers often get them wrong. But here is a partial list (some of these are double edged, naturally):
big data analytics, cheap world-wide communication, strong crypto, clever PR/marketing people, professional bureaucracy, multinational corps, cheap manufacturing of all sorts of horrible things, incredibly deadly weapons, ability to kill via drone strikes, learning to coordinate larger and larger organizations (see for example how China learned to crowd-source censoring and online propaganda on the cheap), etc.
Well, that's quite a long list. To pick out a few of your examples:
multinational corps
My impression is that one of the main arguments against corporations is corporate lobbying. Under an examination-based system, there is no campaign funding which should go a long way to removing this problem. And the 'multi-national' bit is an incentive against wars.
incredibly deadly weapons
You can kill a lot of people with machetes.
...learning to coordinate larger and larger organizations (see for example how China learned to crowd-source censoring and online prop
In the big survey, political views are divided into large categories so that statistics are possible. This article is an attempt to supply a text field so that we can get a little better view of the range of beliefs.
My political views aren't adequately expressed by "libertarian". I call myself a liberal-flavored libertarian, by which I mean that I want the government to hurt people less. The possibility that the government is giving too much to poor people is low on my list of concerns. I also believe that harm-causing processes should be shut down before support systems
So, what political beliefs do you have that don't match the usual meaning of your preferred label?