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Kindly comments on Open thread, Oct. 27 - Nov. 2, 2014 - Less Wrong
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Okay, sure. The picker could be lying or speaking quietly; the bomb could be malfunctioning or have a timer that hasn't gone off yet. (Note to self: put down the ball as soon as you find out that it could be a bomb.) These things don't seem like they should be the point of a thought experiment.