I'm sorry, I'm not trying to be hostile. But words have meanings. If you could equate "Y has been observed to produce some X among a myriad of other effects" with "Y is an X maximiser", what's the point in having a word like "maximiser"? Hell, even remove the "myriad of other effects" - a paperclip-making machine or paperclip factory isn't a paperclip maximiser either.
It certainly looks like whatever afflicted this planet intends to produce as much CO2 as possible
It certainly does not.
Well, maybe to a very contrived observer: you'd have to have all the knowledge about our planet necessary to realize that a CO2 increase is happening (not trivial) and that it's not a natural effect of whatever changes the planet naturally undergoes (even less trivial), and somehow magically be ignorant of any other details, to even entertain such a notion. Any more knowledge and you'd immediately begin noticing that our civilisation produces a myriad of effects that it would not bother producing if it were a CO2 maximiser, and that for all the effort and ingenuity that it puts into its works, the effects in terms of C02 increase are actually rather pathetic.
You're closer to a reasonable use of the term by calling the paperclip-producing advanced civilisation an incidental paperclip maximiser, because the end result will be the same - all matter eventually converted into paperclips. It's still a stretch, though, because a maximiser would take the shortest route towards tiling the universe with paperclips, while the advanced civilisation will be actively trying to minimise paperclipping in proportion to its actual goals - it will try to extract as much usefulness out of every bit of matter converted as it can. So it's still an incidental producer, not maximiser. Would an outside observer be able to tell the difference? I don't know, but I suggest the way this civilisation would be doing a myriad of interesting things instead of simply focusing on the most efficient way to produce paperclips would be an easy giveaway.
Of course if we only look at end results to decide if we call something a "maximiser", then any agent actively pursuing any goals is an "entropy maximiser". At this point I stop feeling like language conveys useful meaning.
if we meet what looks like an alien Clippy, we should not jump to conclusions that paperclip maximizing is its terminal value.
Yes, certainly. It seems to me that the thought you were expressing is actually the opposite of those of your words I've been objecting to: if something looks like a maximiser, it's possibly it isn't one.
As most LWers will know, Clippy the Paperclip Maximiser is a superintelligence who wants to tile the universe with paperclips. The LessWrong wiki entry for Paperclip Maximizer says that:
I think that a massively powerful star-faring entity - whether a Friendly AI, a far-future human civilisation, aliens, or whatever - might indeed end up essentially converting huge swathes of matter in to paperclips. Whether a massively powerful star-faring entity is likely to arise is, of course, a separate question. But if it does arise, it could well want to tile the universe with paperclips.
Let me explain.
To travel across the stars and achieve whatever noble goals you might have (assuming they scale up), you are going to want energy. A lot of energy. Where do you get it? Well, at interstellar scales, your only options are nuclear fusion or maybe fission.
Iron has the strongest binding energy of any nucleus. If you have elements lighter than iron, you can release energy through nuclear fusion - sticking atoms together to make bigger ones. If you have elements heavier than iron, you can release energy through nuclear fission - splitting atoms apart to make smaller ones. We can do this now for a handful of elements (mostly selected isotopes of uranium, plutonium and hydrogen) but we don’t know how to do this for most of the others - yet. But it looks thermodynamically possible. So if you are a massively powerful and massively clever galaxy-hopping agent, you can extract maximum energy for your purposes by taking up all the non-ferrous matter you can find and turning it in to iron, getting energy through fusion or fission as appropriate.
You leave behind you a cold, dark trail of iron.
That seems a little grim. If you have any aesthetic sense, you might want to make it prettier, to leave an enduring sign of values beyond mere energy acquisition. With careful engineering, it would take only a tiny, tiny amount of extra effort to leave the iron arranged in to beautiful shapes. Curves are nice. What do you call a lump of iron arranged in to an artfully-twisted shape? I think we could reasonably call it a paperclip.
Over time, the amount of space that you’ve visited and harvested for energy will increase, and the amount of space available for your noble goals - or for anyone else’s - will decrease. Gradually but steadily, you are converting the universe in to artfully-twisted pieces of iron. To an onlooker who doesn’t see or understand your noble goals, you will look a lot like you are a paperclip maximiser. In Eliezer’s terms, your desire to do so is an instrumental value, not a terminal value. But - conditional on my wild speculations about energy sources here being correct - it’s what you’ll do.