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lmm comments on The Truth and Instrumental Rationality - Less Wrong
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There is a cost to false beliefs. We should all know that. But the cost isn't infinite, and sometimes the benefits outweigh them. Self-deception remains a valuable tool to have in your toolbox; when you make the decision you assess the cost as best as you can using available information (like, what're the odds that a bunch of muppets would be standing in a river like that, and not already be certain to drown?).
LOL. Well I agree with your first three sentences, but I'd also add that we systematically the costs of false beliefs because (1) at the point of deception we cannot reliably predict future instances in which the self-deceptive belief will become a premise in a decision (2) in instances where we make a instrumentally poor decision due to a self-deception, we often receive diminished or no feedback (we are unaware of the dead stones floating down the river).