Rationality Quotes November 2014

8 Post author: elharo 07 November 2014 07:07PM

Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:

  • Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
  • Do not quote yourself.
  • Do not quote from Less Wrong itself, HPMoR, Eliezer Yudkowsky, or Robin Hanson. If you'd like to revive an old quote from one of those sources, please do so here.
  • No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.
  • Provide sufficient information (URL, title, date, page number, etc.) to enable a reader to find the place where you read the quote, or its original source if available. Do not quote with only a name.

Comments (337)

Comment author: dspeyer 01 November 2014 09:52:29PM 37 points [-]

It’s easier to bear in mind that the map is not the territory when you have two different maps.

--Eric Raymond on the value of bilinguilism

Comment author: timujin 03 November 2014 07:33:56AM 24 points [-]

My native language is Russian (and was also the only language I could speak before my teens). I can also speak English, and it is my primary language for thinking now (it is MUCH easier to think in English, than in Russian - Russian is horrible). The two languages do not feel like different maps. I do have some problems in conversing with Russian-speaking individuals, mostly with expressing myself (English offers so many useful features not present in Russian that I feel like an amputee when I can't use them), but I do not think that knowing the distinction helped me with rationality much. They are not different ways of seeing the world, but different ways of describing what you see. Not different maps, different map colorings, maybe.

Comment author: CCC 03 November 2014 10:37:32AM 14 points [-]

Hmmm. I have a slightly different experience to you. I am bilingual - English/Afrikaans - though my Afrikaans was never a language I used a lot and I have a very poor grasp of it in comparison.

This has led to something interesting - if I try to think in Afrikaans, I notice a distinct difference in my thoughts. Normally, my thoughts take the form of an internal monologue (almost, but not quite, exclusively). If I try to think in Afrikaans, which has a different grammar (and importantly, a different word order) to English, then I get the distinct impression of parts of my thoughts queued up and waiting for their part of the sentence to happen. This tells me that there are more complicated things going on inside my head than I had previously thought.

...though interesting, I have not as yet found any practical use for this knowledge.

Comment author: timujin 03 November 2014 06:17:20PM 7 points [-]

I don't know Afrikaans, but Russian is very much unlike English in a lot of things - most notably, the order of words in a sentence usually plays next to no role whatsoever in terms of actual meaning (you may sound somewhat posh or dramatic if you randomize it too much, but Yoda still sounds pretty normal in all Star Wars Rusian translations I know). Given all that, I don't feel anything like you describe when I think in Russian.

Comment author: CCC 04 November 2014 02:53:16PM *  3 points [-]

Hmmm. Looking it up, I see that English and Russian are both broadly categorised as subject-verb-object languages, while Afrikaans is a subject-object-verb language.

Hence, if I were to translate directly word-for-word from grammatically correct Afrikaans to English, without changing the word order, the result would be something along the lines of "He did to the shops go" or "He did a bit of milk at the shop buy".

I've never come across an Afrikaans translation of Star Wars to listen to Yoda in (to be fair, I've never really looked, either).

You can probably get a similar effect without needing to learn another language if you convolute your grammar to the point of putting the verb at the end of each and every sentence.

Comment author: Sarunas 03 November 2014 11:49:00AM *  10 points [-]

I, too, sometimes find that it is easier for me to express certain ideas in English than in my native language. However, I guess, in my case the reason seems to be analogous to the reasons mentioned in Steven Pinker's article "Why Academics Stink at Writing". Although it mainly talks about why academics find it difficult to express their ideas in simple words, it seems to me that if one uses predominantly English in certain settings or talking about certain subjects, then the reasons (chunking and functional fixedness) why ideas about these subjects are difficult to express in one's native language are probably similar.

Scholars lose their moorings in the land of the concrete because of two effects of expertise that have been documented by cognitive psychology. One is called chunking. To work around the limitations of short-term memory, the mind can package ideas into bigger and bigger units, which the psychologist George Miller dubbed "chunks." As we read and learn, we master a vast number of abstractions, and each becomes a mental unit that we can bring to mind in an instant and share with others by uttering its name. An adult mind that is brimming with chunks is a powerful engine of reason, but it comes at a cost: a failure to communicate with other minds that have not mastered the same chunks.

The amount of abstraction a writer can get away with depends on the expertise of his readership. But divining the chunks that have been mastered by a typical reader requires a gift of clairvoyance with which few of us are blessed. When we are apprentices in our chosen specialty, we join a clique in which, it seems to us, everyone else seems to know so much! And they talk among themselves as if their knowledge were conventional wisdom to every educated person. As we settle into the clique, it becomes our universe. We fail to appreciate that it is a tiny bubble in a multiverse of cliques. When we make first contact with the aliens in other universes and jabber at them in our local code, they cannot understand us without a sci-fi universal translator.

[...]

The second way in which expertise can make our thoughts harder to share is that as we become familiar with something, we think about it more in terms of the use we put it to and less in terms of what it looks like and what it is made of. This transition is called functional fixity. In the textbook experiment, people are given a candle, a book of matches, and a box of thumbtacks, and are asked to attach the candle to the wall so that the wax won’t drip onto the floor. The solution is to dump the thumbtacks out of the box, tack the box to the wall, and stick the candle onto the box. Most people never figure this out because they think of the box as a container for the tacks rather than as a physical object in its own right. The blind spot is called functional fixity because people get fixated on an object’s function and forget its physical makeup.

Now, if you combine functional fixity with chunking, and stir in the curse that hides each one from our awareness, you get an explanation of why specialists use so much idio­syncratic terminology, together with abstractions, metaconcepts, and zombie nouns. They are not trying to bamboozle their readers; it’s just the way they think. The specialists are no longer thinking—and thus no longer writing—about tangible objects, and instead are referring to them by the role those objects play in their daily travails. A psychologist calls the labels true and false "assessment words" because that’s why he put them there—so that the participants in the experiment could assess whether it applied to the preceding sentence. Unfortunately, he left it up to us to figure out what an "assessment word" is.

While scholars package their ideas and abstractions into chunks, in everyday language we package the connotations of words/idioms/expressions into similar implicit chunks that are hard to separate from the word/idiom/expression itself. Direct translation might not preserve all these connotations. It seems to me that while we could try to preserve some connotations that are most relevant in a given situation, we might feel uncomfortable doing so, because losing connotations feels like losing accuracy and precise meaning of what we tried to convey, even in situations where a simple paraphrase could preserve connotations that are actually relevant.

In a professional setting, functional fixedness becomes very important. It is probably the reason why so much professional jargon (outside the Anglosphere) is based on other languages, especially English.

Comment author: roystgnr 05 November 2014 09:09:22PM 10 points [-]

Are there no instances in Russian which reveal a poorly categorized concept in English, or vice-versa?

I'm surprised ESR didn't bring up the difficulty of talking about "free software" in a language that doesn't distinguish "libre" from "gratuit", for example.

My own favorite example is how stunningly ambiguous the word "why" seems after learning about finer distinctions like the "por que" vs "para que" distinction in Spanish. How many creationists are subconsciously confused by the fact that "from what cause?" and "for what purpose?" are treated in English as identical questions?

You can always translate the ambiguity logically (into any sufficiently "complete" language?), but the increased awkwardness of the translation may have an effect. For an example from today's news commentary: even some ardent feminists are surprised to learn that "Banksy" might be a woman, possibly because even if you know intellectually that English uses "he" as a neutral pronoun for a person of unknown gender, that's not always enough to prevent prose references to an unknown person as "he" from affecting you subliminally.

Comment author: timujin 06 November 2014 07:13:20PM 11 points [-]

Are there no instances in Russian which reveal a poorly categorized concept in English, or vice-versa?

Oh yes, there are. My personal pet peeve, there is no way to distinguish "difficulty" and "complexity" in Russian. There is even no simple way (or, at least, I don't know one) like "difficult as in how hard it is to do, not as in how hard it is to describe"). However, hard way (spending a minute explaining the difference and then using some shorthand) works perfectly with Russian-only speakers, even not very intelligent ones. They do seem to have that distinction in their maps, and sometimes even comment on how weird it is that it is impossible to spell it properly. I never saw anyone being confused by it.

My own favorite example is how stunningly ambiguous the word "why" seems after learning about finer distinctions like the "por que" vs "para que" distinction in Spanish.

BTW, Russian does have that distinction. Question words is one area in which Russian is superior, in my opinion.

For an example from today's news commentary: even some ardent feminists are surprised to learn that "Banksy" might be a woman, possibly because even if you know intellectually that English uses "he" as a neutral pronoun for a person of unknown gender, that's not always enough to prevent prose references to an unknown person as "he" from affecting you subliminally.

Oh, that reminds me. In Russian, every noun has a grammatical gender. Cabinet is male, keyboard is female and window is neuter. It DOES carry a lot of connotations that affect me in introspectively noticable ways.

Curious note: when rereading this post last time before posting, I noticed that in the very first paragraph, when I talked about distinction between complexity and difficulty, I used words "simple" and "hard" as literal antonyms without even noticing.

Comment author: Azathoth123 07 November 2014 02:57:01AM 3 points [-]

There is even no simple way (or, at least, I don't know one) like "difficult as in how hard it is to do, not as in how hard it is to describe").

Трудный. Although a related word that is hard to translate into Russian is "challenge".

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 20 November 2014 04:32:45PM 2 points [-]

Is there a russian word for "fun?"

Comment author: Azathoth123 07 November 2014 02:59:06AM 10 points [-]

For an example from today's news commentary: even some ardent feminists are surprised to learn that "Banksy" might be a woman, possibly because even if you know intellectually that English uses "he" as a neutral pronoun for a person of unknown gender, that's not always enough to prevent prose references to an unknown person as "he" from affecting you subliminally.

Or possibly because the prior for the gender of the kind of person who'd the kind of things Banksy does is heavily in favor of him being male.

Comment author: Nornagest 05 November 2014 09:50:35PM *  4 points [-]

How many creationists are subconsciously confused by the fact that "from what cause?" and "for what purpose?" are treated in English as identical questions?

Interesting. I was going to point to "how come?" and "what for?" as examples of this distinction being made in English, but after a bit of thought they don't actually work as such: "how come you gave me a dollar?" is a linguistically valid question and could be validly answered by something like "so you can buy a candy bar". Using "what for" to point to a cause rather than a purpose is more dialectical, but I have heard it.

Comment author: Emily 28 November 2014 03:49:16PM 3 points [-]

Here's a differently categorised concept that you might like: the colour blue. English has just one basic colour term than encompasses everything from dark blue to light blue (obviously, we can distinguish them by adding descriptors like dark and light, but still fall under blue). Russian has the separate basic colour terms sinii (dark blue) and goluboi (light blue). There's a neat paper in which the analogous distinction in Greek is shown to affect Greek speakers' perception of colours in comparison to English speakers on a pre-conscious level (measured using EEG), so your language-map really can affect your perception of the territory, even when language isn't directly involved.

Comment author: ThisSpaceAvailable 26 November 2014 03:51:23AM 3 points [-]

I remember a quote along the lines "Different languages don't restrict what you can say, they restrict what you can not say". For instance, in a gendered language, you can't not say the gender, or at least draw a lot of attention to the fact that you aren't saying the gender.

Comment author: ChristianKl 22 November 2014 07:21:37PM 1 point [-]

You can always translate the ambiguity logically (into any sufficiently "complete" language?), but the increased awkwardness of the translation may have an effect.

You don't only add awkwardness. You nearly always also add additional meaning or lose meaning.

If you for example want to translate the English "Dear students," into German you can either say: "Liebe Schüler,", "Liebe Schüler und Schülerinnen," or "Liebe Schülerinnen und Schüler,". In German the words have a gender and if you want to be gender neutral you need both the male and the female form. Then you have to decide which one of those you write first and which one last.

Comment author: jbay 23 November 2014 01:10:59AM 1 point [-]

Oh good point! And if you don't know the context when performing the translation (perhaps it's an announcement at an all-girls or an all-boys school?), then the translation will be incorrect.

The ambiguity in the original sentence may be impossible to preserve in the translation process, which doesn't mean that translation is impossible, but it does mean that information must be added by the translator to the sentence that wasn't present in the original sentence.

Sometimes I do small contract translation jobs as a side activity, but it's very frustrating when a client sends me snippets of text to be translated without the full context.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 December 2014 08:05:00PM 1 point [-]

Which features of English do you miss?

Comment author: timujin 07 December 2014 07:38:56PM *  4 points [-]

Articles. Not only there are none in Russian, but there is nothing that serves their function.

Happens all the time:

-- I just put my towel to laundry.

-- Okay.

-- But I just realised that I need towel again. Could you go fetch towel for me?

-- Here, I brought you towel.

-- This is another towel.

-- Oh, so you needed that very towel that you put into laundry?

-- Oh. (switching to English) I wanted to say "I need the towel", not "I need a towel"!

Next, Russian often requires you to specify a lot of extra info, compared to English. Example:

-- Why is that thing a fish?

-- It isn't. (because it's a dolphin)

"It is a fish" = "Это рыба" (it fish). No 'is' in this sentence in Russian. So, instead of "it isn't" you must say "it isn't a fish". There is no easy way to say this sentence without using the word "fish" or some extra clumsy wording like "not the thing you are asking about". That makes it very hard to make stuff like chatbots in Russian, or write generic lines for RPG games where the same line can be used in different circumstances.

Same thing with grammatical genders. When you say "X does Y", you must specify gender of X in Y's form. A lot of media was botched in translation, when one character thinks that another character is a girl when he's actually a guy (and is not trying to deliberately deceive). In Russian, it is hard to say more than a couple of sentences without revealing your gender in the process.

Is that enough? There is more where that came from.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 08 December 2014 04:34:29PM *  0 points [-]

Thanks! I didn't mean to have you produce a small essay - 'definite/indefinite articles' and 'gender ambiguity' would have covered me on the first and third.

I remain curious, but not to the extent I'm asking you to put in significant effort.

Comment author: timujin 08 December 2014 08:34:57PM *  5 points [-]

No, it's actually fun. Brief examples:

  • "It depends". I have never been able to get away with just saying "it depends" - Russian version prompts you to either specify what it depends on, or explicitly refuse to, begging the question of why I am being so sneaky.

  • There is no word that means "complexity", but can not be alternatively understood as "difficulty". When I tell someone I want a complex challenge, they ask why I am not carrying heavy things around, as that is quite difficult.

  • In same vein, no word for "challenge" that doesn't also mean "ordeal". The distinction seems to be also missing from Russian brains, a very peculiar phenomenon that Russian culturologists are always upset about.

  • No different words for 'accuracy' and 'precision'.

  • No word for 'awesome' that is both strong enough and can be shown on TV. But, on the other hand, the obscene word for 'awesome' is much more awesome that 'awesome'.

  • English tenses are more flexible and consistent. Russian only has three, plus the standalone "have been"-like form. They don't distinguish between "I do things" and "I am doing things", for instance.

  • In English, you can put an emphasis on 'am' or 'is'. In Russian, to do that, you need to throw in a few extra words.

  • Context-independency. Russian has a small basic vocabulary, and compensates it with insanely complex syntactic structures that makes it harder to pull a couple of words from a sentence and understand what it is about.

To even things a bit, here are some advantages of Russian over Englsh:

  • Phonetics. If you know how to write a word, you automatically and unambiguously (with a single notable exception) know how to pronounce it. It works a little less perfect the other way around, but good enough that Russian spelling bees do not exist and don't even make sense.

  • English has a ridiculously huge amount of words that sound the same or similar, like 'to', 'two' and 'too', or 'bot' and 'bought'. The last one is just horrible - you insert three new letters, doubling word's length, and it still sounds the same. No such thing is possible in Russian.

  • Words "себя" and "авось".

  • Word formation. It is much more flexible than in English. You can easily say things like "недоперепрыгнул", which means "tried, but not succeeded, to jump over something".

  • Distinction between singular and plural "you".

  • Mat. English swearing pales in comparison to this.

Comment author: Username 09 December 2014 12:43:23AM 3 points [-]

I have never been able to get away with just saying "it depends"

I have: "Зависит." Everyone understands that very well.

There is no word that means "complexity", but can not be alternatively understood as "difficulty".

Kinda. "Запутанный", "навороченный", etc. Besides, just as any language, Russian depends on the context. In some context the word "сложный" will be understood as "complex", and in other context -- as "difficult" and that's fine.

But to your complaints about expressing certain concepts in Russian I would add the observation that the Russian language has no word for "privacy" -- none at all.

Comment author: Bugmaster 09 December 2014 04:23:18AM 2 points [-]

I think the more proper translation of "it depends" would be "как сказать".

Also, while it is true that the Russian language has no word for "privacy", note that it also has no word for "gun" :-)

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 09 December 2014 05:53:45PM *  0 points [-]

Стрелковое оружие (firearm) (?)

Comment author: Bugmaster 09 December 2014 06:07:51PM 0 points [-]

That doesn't cover artillery, unlike the word "gun".

Comment author: shminux 09 December 2014 01:16:02AM 1 point [-]

In same vein, no word for "challenge" that doesn't also mean "ordeal". The distinction seems to be also missing from Russian brains, a very peculiar phenomenon that Russian culturologists are always upset about.

This actually seems to be an argument in support of the original quote, to some degree.

Comment author: Nornagest 08 December 2014 09:02:13PM 1 point [-]

But, on the other hand, the obscene word for 'awesome' is much more awesome that 'awesome'.

Come on, you can't just say something like that without giving details.

Comment author: Username 09 December 2014 12:30:48AM *  2 points [-]

I guess the grandparent means "охуительно". The fact the Russian has flexible word formation combined with a well-developed swearing vocabulary means that you can express quite complicated concepts using nothing but swear words and it works wonderfully well.

Comment author: gjm 09 December 2014 12:08:26PM 1 point [-]

As a non-Russian-speaker, I would need more details to make sense of that. I gather that "охуительно" (1) is obscene and (2) means something like "awesome", but what's its obscene meaning and what's the link between that and meaning something like "awesome"?

A bit of googling suggests that the word is somehow derived from a word meaning "penis", but it's a lot longer than that word so presumably there's some other stuff going on.

Comment author: timujin 09 December 2014 02:21:03PM *  2 points [-]

Okay, instead of making myself feel better by professing myself of possessing knowledge mere mortals do not, I will at least try to describe what is going on in this word (it is going to be very simplified and with some omissions, because I am no linguist and am operating from instinct).

Let's start with хуй, that means "dick". "Хуеть" is this word transformed into a verb, which can get a lot of different meanings as it goes, but we'll just focus on one - "becoming progressively more and more surprised/daunted". "Охуеть" transforms it from continuous form into "have become" form, with a touch of "all over" or "completely" meaning added in. Then goes "охуить", which is the same verb in a sort of passive involuntary form, from "become" to "having been made to become". Note that "охуить" is not usually used on its own. At this point we have "forcibly make one dauntingly surprised enough that 1) you usually can become that surprised only by progressively becoming more and more surprised for a very long time 2) it is totally all over you, as in, it is now a dominant feeling". From "охуить" we get "охуительный", which is a standard way to transform a verb into adjective, so the meaning specified above is now used as adjective. From "охуительный" we get "охуительно" which looks like adjective being transformed into adverb, but that's optical illusion (although you can potentially use it as an adverb "awesomely"). What actually happened, is that we just stripped the word from its referent. So, it's just very generalized version of "охуительный".

So, you can use "охуительно" as an adverb "awesomely", or as a generalized "awesome" without a referent, like a cheer (Awesome!!!). The adverb version can alternatively just amplify the "all over" meaning, so you can use it as a strong "very", or "so much that it it daunting". You can use "охуительный" as an adjective "awesome", like in "awesome thing".

Compared to "awesome", "охуительно" is much easier to use in a negative form, as a sarcasm ("My car just broke, that is just awesome"), because nowhere it is specified that the surprise must be positive. That one helps to combo it with all the other profanity to complicate and refine its meaning even further, abusing this ambiguity.

Правда, охуительно?

Edit: I forgot about one more factor: "хуеть" does get a couple of additional meanings as it goes in this case, namely "be nuts/asshole". "Ты что, охуел?" == "Are you nuts?/How do you dare?/You must be an asshole if you are doing this". I am not going to elaborate how exactly this meaning adds to the final word.

Comment author: LizzardWizzard 09 December 2014 12:18:59PM *  1 point [-]

ahahaahahahaha as a native russian speaker I can say for sure that u can define ANY concept just by slightly transforming words derived from "penis" or "cunt". There is almost infinite set of variations, each having particular meaning; u have no choice rather than to beleive me or dedicate lifetime into learning Russian filthy language

Comment author: LizzardWizzard 09 December 2014 09:54:19AM *  0 points [-]

Really fascinating! But my russian brains can't grasp this one thing, could you please at least try to explain what is this mysterious additional meaning of the word 'challenge' that can't be translated into Russian, and doesn't mean "summon to contest" or "high degree of difficulty"

Comment author: timujin 09 December 2014 11:36:07AM 1 point [-]

I have some trouble understanding what you want. Try to rephrase, or expand.

Comment author: LizzardWizzard 09 December 2014 12:03:28PM 0 points [-]

In same vein, no word for "challenge" that doesn't also mean "ordeal". The distinction seems to be also missing from Russian brains, a very peculiar phenomenon that Russian culturologists are always upset about.

to paraphrase, what is the meaning of challenge except "вызов" or "испытание"

Comment author: timujin 09 December 2014 01:32:12PM *  2 points [-]

There is no extra meaning in "challenge". "Вызов" and "испытание" cover the English word "challenge" more or less completely. The problem is that they also accidentally cover the English word "ordeal" as well. Challenge is not something bad or painful, but ordeal is. When you say you want "испытание", you can potentially be understood as "I want more pain in my life", which is not what English "I want a challenge" means.

Comment author: anandjeyahar 02 November 2014 04:56:14PM 8 points [-]

This is also the same reason I like Alan Perlis's quote on programming languages. Paraphrased it reads "There's no point in learning a new language that doesn't teach you a new way of thinking." I equate "the new way of thinking" with maps here.

Comment author: Thomas 23 December 2014 11:29:10AM *  0 points [-]

map is not the territory when you have two different maps

Every map is also a part of the whole territory - don't forget this complication!

Comment author: LyleN 20 November 2014 02:59:00PM 12 points [-]

With the truth, all given facts harmonize; but with what is false, the truth soon hits a wrong note.

-- Aristotle in The Nicomachean Ethics, pointing out entangled truths and contagious lies

Comment author: soreff 23 November 2014 01:16:40AM 3 points [-]

"soon" can vary quite a bit, depending on what is false. Following the link, I'm skeptical of "From the study of that single pebble you could see the laws of physics and all they imply." Specifically, I'm skeptical that one can deduce the parts of the laws of physics that matter under extreme conditions (general relativity, physics at Plank-scale energies) by examining the behavior of matter under benchtop conditions, at achievable levels of accuracy. The motivation for building instruments like the LHC in the first place is that they allow probing parts of physical laws which would otherwise produce exceeding small effects or exceedingly rare phenomena.

Comment author: Weedlayer 23 November 2014 07:51:27AM 1 point [-]

The tricky part is the "achievable levels of accuracy". It would be possible for, say Galileo to invent general relativity using the orbit of mercury, probably. But from a pebble, you would need VERY precise measurements, to an absurd level.

Comment author: VAuroch 11 November 2014 07:02:18AM *  31 points [-]

“There is no point in using the word 'impossible' to describe something that has clearly happened.”

-- Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency, Douglas Adams

Comment author: Lumifer 11 November 2014 05:56:47PM *  15 points [-]

[Vizzini has just cut the rope The Dread Pirate Roberts is climbing up]
Vizzini: HE DIDN'T FALL? INCONCEIVABLE.
Inigo Montoya: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Comment author: VAuroch 12 November 2014 08:03:26AM *  12 points [-]

I always feel a bit bad for Vizzini. His plan is very well thought-out and sensible; he's just in the entirely wrong genre for those qualities to be remotely relevant to its success.

It doesn't help that up to that point, the genre looks like one where it should work. Obviously the character's timeline could make it more obvious, but from ours it isn't.

Comment author: Lumifer 12 November 2014 03:35:53PM 6 points [-]

he's just in the entirely wrong genre for those qualities to be remotely relevant to its success.

Well, we can extract a life lesson from this: make sure that having well thought-out and sensible plans is actually relevant to success in the context you're operating in :-/ Go meta if needed :-)

Comment author: BloodyShrimp 11 November 2014 06:34:18PM 1 point [-]

But the map is the map...

Comment author: Nominull 21 November 2014 08:33:37AM 3 points [-]

That seems like a failure of noticing confusion; some clear things are actually false.

Comment author: CCC 21 November 2014 09:30:41AM 5 points [-]

I saw it as more of a warning about the limits of maps - when something happens that you think is impossible, then it is time to update your map, and not rail against the territory for failing to match it.

(Of course, it is possible that you have been fooled, somehow, into thinking that something has happened which has, in actual fact, not happened. This possibility should be considered and appropriately weighted (given whatever evidence you have of the thing actually happening) against the possibility that the map is simply wrong.)

Comment author: Strange7 29 November 2014 11:56:17PM 1 point [-]

If you've been fooled, there's still no point to calling it impossible, given that you're trying to find out what actually happened.

Comment author: CCC 02 December 2014 09:02:07AM 2 points [-]

Hmmm.

If you were to tell me, for example, that you had seen a man flying through the air like Superman, then I think I could reasonably call that "impossible" and conclude that you were lying. (If I happened to be in Metropolis at the time, then I might soon be proven wrong - nonetheless, the conclusion that you are lying is significantly more probable than the conclusion that someone has suddenly developed the power of flight).

On the other hand... if you were to hold an object, and then let go, and that object were to fall up instead of down, then calling that "impossible" would be useless; I have seen the object fall up, I can see it there on the roof, I can walk under it. (And it is, indeed, not impossible; the object could be a helium balloon, or you might have concealed a powerful magnet in the roof and used a metal object).

...hmmm. I think the difference here is that in the first case, the thing has not clearly happened; I merely have an eyewitness report, which is easily forged, to say that it took place. In the second case, I have far more data to show that the object really did fall upwards, and I can even (perhaps with the aid of a ladder) retrieve the object and drop it myself, confirming that it continues to fall upwards; it has clearly happened, calling it "impossible" is indeed futile, and the only question is how.

Comment author: khafra 04 December 2014 07:44:11PM 1 point [-]

No observation is false. Any explanation for a given observation may, with finite probability, be false; no matter how obvious and inarguable it may seem.

Comment author: Wes_W 05 December 2014 05:01:05PM 3 points [-]

No observation is false.

This is one of those things that seems like it ought to be true, if only humans weren't so human. I've seen enough attempted bug reports based on events which - upon going through the logs - never actually happened, to disabuse me of the notion. Certainly some class of "false observations" might be better thought of as "false explanations", but sometimes people are just plain wrong about what they saw.

Comment author: VAuroch 21 November 2014 09:00:19PM *  1 point [-]

That may be, but if you label them 'impossible' and dismiss them, you won't gather more evidence to prove it. And if something you consider impossible has actually happened, you're missing an opportunity to improve your model significantly.

This is in fact what happens in-context. With a preposterously-detailed description of observable events (via magic hypnosis; I didn't say the novel made sense), Gently concludes that something has happened which could not have happened as described, and that the only explanation which would explain the results involves time travel; the other person says that it's impossible, to which Gently replies this.

Comment author: Nominull 23 November 2014 09:22:04AM 1 point [-]

Yeah, I feel like in real world situations, hypothesizing time travel when things don't make sense is not likely to be epistemically successful.

Wasn't there a proverb about generalizing from fictional evidence? Especially from fiction that intentionally doesn't make sense?

Comment author: dxu 23 November 2014 04:35:07PM *  3 points [-]

I don't think the quote is talking about "hypothesizing" anything; I read it more as "You have to update on evidence whether that evidence fits into your original model of the world or not". Instead of "hypothesizing time travel when things don't make sense", it'd be more like a stranger appears in front of you in a flash of light with futuristic-looking technology, proves that he is genetically human, and claims to be from the future. In that case it doesn't matter what your priors were for something like that happening; it already happened, and crying "Impossible!" is as illegal a move in Bayes as moving your king into check is in chess.

Not that such a thing is likely to happen, of course, but if it did happen, would you sit back and claim it didn't because it "doesn't make sense"?

Comment author: faul_sname 25 November 2014 08:47:59PM 2 points [-]

Yes. And then I would go see a psychologist. Because I find it more likely that I'm losing my grip on my own sanity than that I've just witnessed time travel.

Comment author: Strange7 30 November 2014 12:11:57AM 4 points [-]

Alright, so you bring this alleged time traveler with you to visit two or three different psychologists, all of whom are appropriately surprised by the whole 'time travel' thing but agree that you seem to be perceiving and processing the facts of the situation accurately.

Furthermore you have a lot of expensive tests run on the health and functionality of your brain, and all of the results turn out within normal limits. Camera-phone videos of the initial arrival are posted to the internet and after millions of views nobody can credibly figure out how it could have been faked. To the extent that introspection provides any meaningful data, you feel fine. In short, by every available test, your sanity is either far beyond retrieval down an indistinguishably perfect fantasy hole, or completely unmarred apart from perhaps a circumstantially-normal level of existential anxiety.

Now what?

Comment author: faul_sname 30 November 2014 09:36:34PM 1 point [-]

Then I accept that there's a time traveler. The evidence in this second situation is quite a bit stronger than a personal observation, and would probably be enough to convince me.

Comment author: dxu 26 November 2014 02:08:14AM *  3 points [-]

Well, the insanity defense is always a possibility, but then again, you have no proof that you're not insane right now, either, so it seems to be a fully general counterargument that can apply at any time to any situation. Ignoring the possibility of insanity, would you see any point in refusing to update, i.e. claiming that what you just saw didn't happen?

Comment author: faul_sname 26 November 2014 04:43:34AM *  2 points [-]

It's always a possibility that I'm insane, but normally a fairly unlikely one.

The baseline hypothesis is (say) p = 0.999 that I'm sane, p = 0.0001 that I'm hallucinating. Let's further assume that if I'm hallucinating, there's a 2% chance that hallucination is about time travel. My prior is something like p = 0.000001 that time travel exists. If I assume those are the only two explanations of seeing a time traveler, (i.e. we're ignoring pranks and similar), my estimate of the probability that time travel exists would shift up to about 2% instead of 0.0001% -- a huge increase. The smart money (98%) is still on me hallucinating though.

If you screen out the insanity possibility, and any other possibility that gives better than 1 in a million chances of me seeing what appears to be a time traveler with what appears to be futuristic technology, yes, the time traveler hypothesis would dominate. However, the prior for that is quite low. There's a difference between "refusing to update" and "not updating far enough that one explanation is favored".

If I was abducted by aliens, my first inclination would likewise be to assume that I'm going insane -- this is despite the fact that nothing in the laws of physics precludes the existence of aliens. Are you saying that the average person who thinks they are abducted by aliens should trust their senses on that matter?

Comment author: dxu 26 November 2014 05:23:24AM *  5 points [-]

Ah. In that case, I think we're basically in agreement. To clarify: I only used the time travel as an example because that was the example that VAuroch used in his/her comment. I agree that even taking into account your observation of time travel, the posterior probability for your insanity is still much larger than the posterior probability for genuine time travel. You do agree, however, that even if you conclude that you are likely insane, the probability of time travel was still updated in a positive direction, right? It seems to me that Nominull (the person to whom I was originally replying) was implying that your probability estimate shouldn't change at all, because that's "clearly impossible"/"fictional evidence" or something along those lines. It is that implication which I disagree with; as long as you're not endorsing that implication, we're in agreement. (If Nominull is reading this and feels that I am mistaken in my reading of his/her comment, then he/she should feel free to clarify his/her meaning.)

Comment author: ike 26 November 2014 01:51:40AM 2 points [-]

Factually speaking, I think if you saw that happen, you would believe, regardless of your protestations now.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 29 November 2014 10:44:45PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: alex_zag_al 01 November 2014 09:19:28PM *  10 points [-]

Colin Howson, talking about how Cox's theorem bears the mark of Cox's training as a physicist (source):

An alternative approach is to start immediately with a quantitative notion and think of general principles that any acceptable numerical measure of uncertainty should obey. R.T. Cox and I.J. Good, working independently in the mid nineteen-forties, showed how strikingly little in the way of constraints on a numerical measure yield the finitely additive probability functions as canonical representations. It is not just the generality of the assumptions that makes the Cox–Good result so significant: unlike some of those which have to be imposed on a qualitative probability ordering, the assumptions used by Cox and to a somewhat lesser extent Good seem to have the property of being uniformly self-evidently analytic principles of numerical epistemic probability whatever particular scale it might be measured in. Cox was a working physicist and his point of departure was a typical one: to look for invariant principles:

To consider first ... what principles of probable inference will hold however probability is measured. Such principles, if there are any, will play in the theory of probable inference a part like that of Carnot’s principle in thermodynamics, which holds for all possible scales of temperature, or like the parts played in mechanics by the equations of Lagrange and Hamilton, which have the same form no matter what system of coordinates is used in the description of motion. [Cox 1961]

Comment author: Azathoth123 02 November 2014 01:13:34AM *  28 points [-]

Base Commander: Anything I do at this point will only make things worse. Anything!
Chief of Police: Many people would charge in anyway.
Base Commander: Oh, the urge to do something during an emergency is very strong. It takes training and discipline to do nothing.

Freefall by Mark Stanley.

Comment author: [deleted] 08 November 2014 06:13:27PM 5 points [-]

Huh. My default reaction during an emergency is to freeze out like a deer in the headlights.

Comment author: Endovior 12 November 2014 10:18:42PM *  6 points [-]

It seems to me that this is related to the idea of roles. If you don't see yourself as being responsible for handling emergencies, you probably won't do anything about them, hoping someone else will. But if you do see yourself as being the person responsible for handling a crisis situation, then you're a lot more likely to do something about it, because you've taken that responsibility upon yourself.

It's a particularly nuanced response to both take that kind of responsibility for a situation, and then, after carefully evaluating the options, decide that the best course is to do nothing, since it conflicts with that cultivated need to respond. That said, it could easily be a better choice than the alternative of making a probably-bad decision in the spur of the moment with incomplete information. Used properly, it's a level above the position of decisive but unplanned action... though on the surface, it can be hard to distinguish from the default bystander position of passing off responsibility.

Comment author: DanielLC 03 November 2014 05:49:21AM 5 points [-]

I don't entirely agree with them. Dr. Bowmen knows that the they won't do anything, which is why he started messing with Florence in the first place. If they made a habit of doing something during an emergency, Dr. Bowmen would stop causing them.

Comment author: dspeyer 03 November 2014 07:03:31AM 4 points [-]

Dr. Bowmen is consistently two steps ahead of the base commander. Instead of not causing emergencies, he might just leave better traps. Or nastier ones.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 December 2014 08:31:00PM 1 point [-]

Or he would take advantage of what they would predictably do.

Comment author: James_Miller 02 November 2014 12:46:09AM 39 points [-]

I want to get the most amount of candy with the least amount of walking.

My 9-year-old son on Halloween.

Comment author: wedrifid 03 November 2014 10:58:17AM 29 points [-]

I want to get the most amount of candy with the least amount of walking.

My 9-year-old son on Halloween.

The Valley of Bad Rationality at work again. Improved optimisation skills and strategic awareness applied to increase the amount of candy consumed while reducing physical exercise!

Comment author: Peter_McIntyre 04 February 2015 08:34:31PM 2 points [-]

Well put!

Comment author: ike 02 November 2014 12:56:37AM 6 points [-]

Can't optimize for two quantities at once. If he could get the maximum amount of candy but not the absolute minimum of walking, what does he choose?

Comment author: FullMeta_Rationalist 02 November 2014 02:32:22AM 13 points [-]
max( Candy / e^Walking )

fudged with a constant of proportionality (pun intended).

Comment author: timujin 03 November 2014 07:12:02AM 3 points [-]

You are a good parent.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 01 November 2014 10:37:35PM *  25 points [-]

The only difference between reality and fiction is that fiction needs to be credible.

Mark Twain

Actually I found this in The topology of Seemingly impossible functional programs which is using topological methods to 'check' infinitely many cases in finite time. Which might even be applicable to FAI research.

Comment author: Strilanc 12 November 2014 03:58:22AM 9 points [-]

... wait, what? You can equate predicates of predicates but not predicates?!

(Two hours later)

Well, I'll be damned...

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 20 November 2014 04:31:30PM 3 points [-]

The key here is the halting requirement. The other stuff is red herrings.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 12 November 2014 06:44:15AM *  2 points [-]

Inconceivable, isn't it? Extra points for actually implementing it.

Comment author: gjm 02 December 2014 01:44:03PM 2 points [-]

(This is basically just restating what Ilya stated but with more details filled in.)

I'd like to see if I can make the seemingly impossible at least plausibly possible. Let's consider a specific startling-looking case, the theorem on slide 17. It's about functions from infinite bit-strings to nonnegative integers, and it says:

  • If you have a function such that
    • for any a, there's a limited number of bits the function looks at to decide f(a)
  • then actually
    • there's a fixed number of bits (independent of a) the function can ever look at to decide f(a) for any a

and at first that seems ridiculous, because obviously you can make what bits it looks at depend on a, and make the number able to be arbitrarily large for suitably chosen a, right?

Let's consider a specific "counterexample" that turns out not to be one. You might think: OK, let's make f count the number of consecutive 1s at the start of our bit-string. Then the antecedent is true -- if a begins with exactly m 1s then the function doesn't care about anything past the (m+1)th bit -- but the consequent isn't -- for any m, you can find two things that agree in their first m places.

"Of course" this is wrong, and the reason why it's wrong is that I failed to actually define a function, because what if a consists entirely of 1s?

Stepping back a little: Suppose we consider values of a that require f to look at more and more bits. Then in a certain sense, they "converge" to a value that requires f to look at every bit -- in other words, one for which the function doesn't halt. (If you tried to implement f from the description I gave above, then you'd make a function that never terminates when passed a bit-string that's all 1s.)

Can we turn this into a proof of the theorem on slide 17? Yes. Suppose you have a function that can look at unboundedly many bits in order to decide its output. Now:

  • Can it look at unboundedly many bits when the first bit is 0? If so, set a0 = 0.
    • If not, then it can look at unboundedly many bits when the first bit is 1. Set a1 = 1.
  • Can it look at unboundedly many bits when the first bit is a0 and the next is 0? If so, set a1 = 0.
    • If not, then it can look at unboundedly many bits when the first bit is a0 and the next is 1. Set a1 = 1.

And so on. And now consider feeding it the bit-string a = [a0,a1,a2,...]. If the function looks only at finitely many bits, we get a contradiction -- because we know that it can look at unboundedly many bits even when those finitely many bits take the values they take in a, which means it doesn't stop after looking at those finitely many bits, after all.

This is in general what's going on with this "topological" stuff. We're looking at cases where the input to the function consists of infinitely many finite choices -- e.g., an infinite string of bits -- and then if we're given a function that can look at unboundedly many bits, we can repeatedly make one choice in a way that still leaves the function potentially looking at unboundedly many bits; in the limit we get an input that makes the function not terminate.

(I have been a little sloppy in talking about what bits the function "looks at". If you think of the function as implemented by a program running on an actual computer, this language matches reality. But if you think more generally of any mathematical function, you need to translate "given bits X, the function looks only at bits Y" as "among bit-strings with bits X, the value of the function is uniquely determined by bits Y" and then "given bits X, the function looks at unboundedly many bits" as "there is no finite Y such that given bits X the function looks only at bits Y".)

Comment author: Manfred 04 November 2014 02:54:10AM 35 points [-]

In fiction, villains start with some great scheme to do something awesome, and that immediately makes them fascinating to the reader. The hero - if you're doing this poorly - sits at home and just waits for the villain to do something awesome so they can respond. This is a problem. The solution is for your heroes to have a great and awesome scheme also, that just isn't evil.

Brandon Sanderson

Comment author: kilobug 05 November 2014 11:01:00AM 11 points [-]

That's often true, but there are counter-examples, like my all time favorite : the Foundation cycle. In it, especially the beginning of it (the Foundation novel and the prequels), it's truly the heroes who are doing something awesome - the Foundation and all what's associated to it - and the villains who try to prevent them (and even that is more complicated/interesting as simple "vilain").

It's also often the case in Jules Verne fiction, or in the rest of "hard scifi", be it about trans-humanism (permutation city for example) or about planetary exploration.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 November 2014 11:04:27PM 5 points [-]

The trope is Villains Act Heroes React, and the Foundation stories don't actually defy this AFAIC recall.

Comment author: kilobug 06 November 2014 09:42:40AM 7 points [-]

It does in various points of the saga, some examples I can give easily, other are spoilers so I'll ROT13 them.

In the first tome and the prequels, it's Harry Seldon who tries to develop pyschohistory and setup the Foundation, and different "villains" react to that. It's true that afterwards the Foundation is mostly reacting to Seldon Crisis, but those crisis are part of Seldon's Plan (so, of the hero planning ahead awesome things).

In the last tome, Foundation and Earth, it's clearly the heroes who start their own quest of finding back the Earth.

Now the spoiling parts (rot13) :

Va gur cerdhryf vg'f pyrneyl Qnarry jub gevrf gb chfu Fryqba gb qrirybc cflpubuvfgbel, naq Qnarry vf gur erny "ureb" bs gur rkgraqrq Sbhaqngvba-Ebobg plpyr.

Va Sbhaqngvba'f Rqtr, juvyr gur znva ureb vf vaqrrq ernpgvba gb orvat chfurq ol inevbhf punenpgre, vg'f abg ivyynvaf jub ner cynaavat gur jubyr riragf, ohg Tnvn, jub vf n cebqhpg bs Qnarry, fb ntnva, bs gur erny "nepu ureb" bs gur fntn.

There are other similar examples in other parts of the cycle, but less obvious ones.

Comment author: ChristianKl 09 November 2014 10:05:28PM 4 points [-]

The outline of the Hero's journey calls for the story to begin with the hero in a mundane situation of normality.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 05 November 2014 04:39:20AM 5 points [-]

A counterexample to the initial claim, which is probably more true of epic fantasy than of fiction generally: In Ayn Rand's fiction, it is indeed the heroes who have great and awesome schemes; the villains just want to wet their beaks, or to stop people from doing great and awesome things, depending on how villainous they are.

Comment author: Nornagest 05 November 2014 10:04:48PM *  9 points [-]

It might be more accurate to say that Ayn Rand's heroes start with grand and awesome schemes. There's a lot of speechifying in between, but in terms of action they always seem to degenerate into some form of "screw you guys, I'm going home" by the end.

I haven't read it for a long time, but I remember thinking that the first third of Atlas Shrugged is a much better book than the whole thing -- because up to that point, it's a novel about building something great in the face of adversity, and after that the adversity wins and it becomes a novel about spite and destruction on all sides. Also because it's way too long for its plot, but never mind that.

Comment author: Vaniver 05 November 2014 11:50:10PM *  3 points [-]

It's not clear to me that this is a counterexample. Ayn Rand's fiction strikes me as mediocre in general, but what strength it has seems to flow from following this principle.

[edit]I seem to have misread the parent, and am agreeing with it.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 07 November 2014 07:03:26AM 3 points [-]

At least one of us is misreading the other's comment: I was suggesting Rand's fiction as a counterexample to

villains start with some great scheme to do something awesome (...) The hero - if you're doing this poorly - sits at home and just waits

which seems to agree with, not be contradicted by, your "flow[s] from following this principle".

Comment author: Vaniver 07 November 2014 01:57:07PM 1 point [-]

At least one of us is misreading the other's comment: I was suggesting Rand's fiction as a counterexample to

Ah, yes. I missed the "initial claim" bit, and thought you meant this was a counterexample to Sanderson's whole claim.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 05 November 2014 09:36:08PM -1 points [-]

The dialogues in the film versions of Atlas Shrugged always felt bland and lame to me until I realized that the "good ones" were saying their lines as "good ones." When I read the book, I felt instinctively drawn to imagining the "good ones" saying their lines as "villains." When you read Dagny as the villain, her dialogues feel much more potent.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 20 November 2014 05:18:28PM 2 points [-]

Really? Perhaps I should reread at least some of Atlas Shrugged from that angle, but I don't see how wanting to run a railroad competently can be read as villianous.

Comment author: ike 30 November 2014 01:31:28AM 6 points [-]

On almost any given policy question, even if all the relevant facts were beyond dispute, choices would still involve complex value judgments.

Clive Crook on Bloomberg View

Comment author: jimmy 02 November 2014 07:18:44PM *  14 points [-]

The moment I realized that if I fall, that would probably be my end, I became really, really calm and detached. I picked up a good spot in the parking, with the back to the wall,, between 2 cars, and I moved there to meet them, all the time I was very focused to not get taken down and to take as many of them with me as possible. That was all I was thinking. In retrospect, I still think there were a decent amount of adrenalin circulating through my body, but in the moment I really felt zen and in complete control of myself.

Now, I don't think that's the average reaction you can expect in a combat situation, nor do I think that so much control is needed. But I've been in other critical and stressful situations (like in the middle of a forest fire, or going up the ring to fight other guys in front of a few hundred people), and I think that it's not the prospect of death or getting hurt that are most stressing, is not knowing what to do

--Bogdan M (emphasis mine)

Comment author: simplicio 05 November 2014 05:54:13PM *  3 points [-]

Source/context?

Comment author: jimmy 08 November 2014 06:20:53PM 3 points [-]
Comment author: aausch 16 November 2014 04:13:39PM 5 points [-]

[in the context of creatively solving a programming problem]

"You will be wrong. You're going to think of better ideas. ... The facts change. ... When the facts change, do not dig in. Do it over again. See if your answer is still valid in light of the new requirements, the new facts. And if it isn't, change your mind, and don't apologize."

-- Rich Hickey

(note that, in context, he tries to differentiate between reasoning with incomplete information, which you don't need to apologize for - just change your mind and move on - and genuine mistakes or errors)

Comment author: pgbh 14 November 2014 07:25:51AM *  14 points [-]

"I remember reading of a competition for a paper on resolution of singularities of surface; Castelnuovo and Enriques were in the committee. Beppo Levi presented his famous paper on the resolution of singularities for surfaces.

Enriques asked him for a couple of examples and was convinced; Castelnuovo was not. The discussion got heated. Enriques exclaimed 'I am ready to cut off my head if this does not work', and Castelnuovo replied 'I don't think that would prove it either.'"

-- Angelo Vistoli, mathoverflow

Comment author: ChristianKl 14 November 2014 02:59:11PM 4 points [-]

I think adding the author name in addition to "mathoverflow" would make sense.

Comment author: gwern 02 December 2014 07:10:15PM 1 point [-]

Of course, if bad proofs lead to heads being cut off, then there would probably be fewer bad proofs. (I take it the point here is not that Castelnuovo had any doubts about whether Enriques was being honest about believing the result or had come to his belief on flimsy grounds (which is usually not something one can take for granted...), but that he understood this and was interested in finding an explicit formal proof of the result.)

Comment author: VAuroch 11 November 2014 07:02:01AM 13 points [-]

Lampshading mysterious answers:

The door was the way to... to... The Door was The Way. Good. Capital letters were always the best way of dealing with things you didn't have a good answer to.

-- Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency, Douglas Adams

Comment author: Unnamed 01 November 2014 09:52:00PM 13 points [-]

It is a sound maxim, and one which all close thinkers have felt, but which no one before Bentham ever so consistently applied, that error lurks in generalities: that the human mind is not capable of embracing a complex whole, until it has surveyed and catalogued the parts of which that whole is made up; that abstractions are not realities per se, but an abridged mode of expressing facts, and that the only practical mode of dealing with them is to trace them back to the facts (whether of experience or of consciousness) of which they are the expression.

Proceeding on this principle, Bentham makes short work with the ordinary modes of moral and political reasoning. These, it appeared to him, when hunted to their source, for the most part terminated in phrases. In politics, liberty, social order, constitution, law of nature, social compact, &c., were the catch-words: ethics had its analogous ones. Such were the arguments on which the gravest questions of morality and policy were made to turn; not reasons, but allusions to reasons; sacramental expressions, by which a summary appeal was made to some general sentiment of mankind, or to some maxim in familiar use, which might be true or not, but the limitations of which no one had ever critically examined.

[...]

It is the introduction into the philosophy of human conduct, of this method of detail—of this practice of never reasoning about wholes until they have been resolved into their parts, nor about abstractions until they have been translated into realities—that constitutes the originality of Bentham in philosophy, and makes him the great reformer of the moral and political branch of it.

[...]

Instead of taking up their opinions by intuition, or by ratiocination from premises adopted on a mere rough view, and couched in language so vague that it is impossible to say exactly whether they are true or false, philosophers are now forced to understand one another, to break down the generality of their propositions, and join a precise issue in every dispute.

Comment author: ike 23 November 2014 02:09:35AM *  3 points [-]

But the surprising thing, even to Hamilton, was that network availability went up, not down. And that is because AWS switches and routers only had features that AWS needed in its network. Commercial network operating systems have to cover all of the possible usage scenarios and protocols with tens of millions of lines of code that is difficult to maintain. “The reason our gear is more reliable is that we didn’t take on this harder problem. Any way that wins is a good way to win.”

James Hamilton on how Amazon speeds up AWS networking by only implementing part of required networking tasks.

(emphasis mine)

Comment author: 27chaos 23 November 2014 06:44:10PM *  2 points [-]

Is there anything like a general theory of satisficing that tells you when it's a good idea? It's reasonably easy to decide in individual cases provided you've got a lot of specific quantitative information, but suppose you don't have a lot of specific information and you only know qualitative facts about how something works within a system.

If not, should people just default to satisficing unless there are obvious reasons it will fall short of optimality, or should they do the opposite? I'm inclined to favor the former, but am interested to hear other people's perspectives.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 01 November 2014 11:12:29PM *  19 points [-]

Personality problems and pattern ordered by difficulty to change according to Seligman:

  • Panic - Curable

  • Specific Phobias - Almost Curable

  • Sexual Dysfunctions - Marked Relief

  • Social Phobia - Moderate Relief

  • Agoraphobia - Moderate Relief

  • Depression - Moderate Relief

  • Sex Role - Moderate Change

  • Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder - Moderate/Mild Relief

  • Sexual Preferences - Moderate/Mild Cange [*]

  • Anger - Mild/Moderate Relief

  • Everyday Anxiety - Mild/Moderate Relief

  • Alcohol Dependency - Mild Relief

  • Overweight - Temporary Change

  • Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) - Marginal Relief [except for rape which shows Moderate Relief]

  • Sexual Orientation - Probably Unchangeable [*]

  • Sexual Identity - Unchangeable [*]

From 'What You Can Change and What You Can't*' by Seligman pg. 244 of the reviewed ('vintage') edition of 2006, explicitly confirmed to be still state of the art.

Just read the book and thought this table to be quite quote-worthy even though it isn't prosaic.

* These terms have specific and possibly somewhat non-standard definitions in the book. Seligman gives a convincing theory for formation of aspects of sexuality of different 'depth' (a core concept of Seligman) based on biological facts around expression of genes and hormones. See chapter 11.

Comment author: johnswentworth 03 November 2014 02:41:11AM 21 points [-]

Someone should write a post called "Open Problems in Self-Improvement".

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 03 November 2014 06:49:05AM 1 point [-]

Maybe you? Apparently you have some specific Open Problems in mind - I don't. Could you spell them out?

Comment author: johnswentworth 05 November 2014 06:45:01AM 11 points [-]

Alas, no. I just saw the bottom half of that list and my physicist instincts said "ah, some nice person has provided a list of interesting and difficult unsolved problems".

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 December 2014 09:27:15PM 3 points [-]

Meanwhile (in the sense of meanwhile which means a month later), my physicist instincts said, 'Aha, conserved quantities!' and then, 'can we apply Noether's theorem?'

Comment author: gwillen 14 November 2014 05:40:57AM 5 points [-]

I wonder whether the classification of PTSD takes account of the apparently miraculous effects of MDMA shown in some studies.

Comment author: chaosmage 21 November 2014 10:10:02AM 2 points [-]

Those studies show improvement with MDMA, but they have small sample sizes and their control groups (which get similarly unusually intense/long therapy sessions without MDMA) show some improvement too. The "apparently miraculous" effect size is at least a good part hype.

Also, lots of people take MDMA in non-therapeutic contexts and lie about it, so it isn't like you're going to find a control group of people you can be definitely sure haven't taken MDMA since they got PTSD - especially if they've heard of said hype.

I'm not saying MDMA doesn't help with PTSD (I even grant that it could help in the treatment of Antisocial Personality, Postpartum Depression and especially Couples Therapy), I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised if more than half of the measured effect was due to the length/intensity of the therapeutic sessions these studies use, rather than due to the drug.

Comment author: [deleted] 29 November 2014 05:37:08PM 2 points [-]

Be careful about interpreting these estimates.

Addiction is a good example: Although beset by selection problems, it looks like many (possibly most) substance-dependent people will eventually recover, despite poor evidence for any specific intervention (relative to just encouraging someone to quit), and the low odds of recovery for a single attempt. But you wouldn't say that these recoveries were somehow accidental or not self-directed! Slatestarcodex had an interesting review of this for alcoholism here.

Also note that several of the other areas will tend to change regardless of a specific intervention:

  • Many (major) depressive episodes will resolve themselves over time. So a positive effect due to treatment could mean several different things: Faster recovery; increased odds of recovery; greater magnitude of recovery; less chance of relapse; or even something like less functional impairment despite no subjective relief. I've read less about other conditions.
  • Weight tends to flatten out and later decrease in mid-life.
  • Absolute personality trait measures drift with aggregate predictability over time. (Relatives measures are more stable, but it's not shocking to see large a large percentile change in an individual.)

Finally: When people talk about weight-loss, they're usually talking about dieting. But bariatric surgery has good evidence for large, long-term weight loss, and is not a rare procedure, (~100,000 a year: link)

Comment author: Clarity 15 January 2016 08:02:38AM 1 point [-]

This is an excellent concept and I am interested in reviewing the evidence further but Seligman's conclusions in positive psychology are notoriously...ah....unfounded by evidence so I am skeptical of this scale.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 15 January 2016 07:35:56PM 1 point [-]

I have difficulties confirming your point. I can't say anything about his positive psychology though that sees to be OK but Seligman's evaluation of 'what you can/can't change' seems to be very well established. Could you point me to your contrary evidence?

Comment author: Clarity 15 January 2016 11:24:36PM *  0 points [-]

Fair enough: if there is evidence for that scale itself, then the author's credibility is far less relevant.

Thank you for prompting me to look for the actual instances of evidence-lacing for the author. Turns out, I'm wrong. I was too quick to challenge his credibility.

It is actually Martin Seligman, one of his contemporaries that allegedly churned out an empirically un-validated theories:

Please see this Wiki page. The last line in that paragraph is a disappointing 'These theories have not been empirically validated.'

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 26 November 2014 05:08:47PM 9 points [-]

We should be wary of political vapourware. If somebody’s alternative to the status quo is nothing, or at least nothing very specific, then what are they even talking about? They are hawking political vapourware, giving a “sales pitch” for something that doesn’t even exist.

Everything Is Problematic, an account of getting out of radical left wing politics.

Comment author: elharo 27 November 2014 02:43:18PM 2 points [-]

This strikes me as a common failing of rationality. Personally I've never really noticed it in politics though. People arguing politics from all corners of the spectrum usually know exactly what they want to happen instead, and will advocate for it in great detail.

However, in science it is extremely common for known broken theories to be espoused and taught because there's nothing (yet) better. There are many examples from the late 19th/early 20th centuries before quantum mechanics was figured out. For example, the prevailing theory of how the sun worked used a model of gravitational contraction that simply could not have powered the sun for anything like the known age of the earth. That model wasn't really discarded until the 1920s and 30s when Gamow and Teller figured out the nuclear reactions that really did power the sun.

There are many examples today, in many fields, where the existing model simply cannot be accurate. Yet until a better model comes along scientists are loath to discard it.

This irrationality, this unwillingness to listen to someone who says "This idea is wrong" unless they can also say "and this alternative idea is right" is a major theme of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 27 November 2014 03:43:32PM 2 points [-]

I've asked SJs whether there was ever a time in their lives when they thought they were in a group that was satisfyingly inclusive, whether there was some experience they were trying to make more common. Admittedly, I only asked a few people (and with tact set on maximum). The only answer I got was no.

It's possible I was overgeneralizing in several ways, but I was asking because it seemed to me that what I'd read of anti-racism had a tone of "something hurts, it's urgent to stop the pain", but there was no positive vision.

This might have something to do with political (and maybe even choices inside businesses) which actually make life better vs. those that don't. There's always some sort of vision, but maybe there are issues related not just to whether pieces of the vision are accurate, but whether it's clear enough in appropriate ways. For example, was part of the problem with centralized economies that no one had a clear idea of how information would get transmitted? (This is a real question.)

Comment author: elharo 27 November 2014 11:15:18PM *  1 point [-]

That someone has never experienced some state X does not imply that they do not have a vision for the state X they wish to achieve in the future. If you want to know what someone's positive vision for the future is, ask them, "What is your vision for a better future?"; not "Have you experienced something better than this in the past?" These are two very different questions.

Most people grow up in some status quo.* That doesn't mean they can conceive of no alternative to that status quo.

  • What qualifies as "status quo" is of course very local to some time, place, and subculture. The status quo described in the article quoted isn't remotely close to anything I've ever seen, but that doesn't mean it isn't an accurate reflection of the status quo at one particular English-speaking university in Montreal in the early teens.
Comment author: ChristianKl 26 November 2014 06:44:46PM 2 points [-]

Given that no revolution ever produced the system that the people who threw the revolution planned to introduce I don't think that it's an easy case to argue that you need to have a specific plan.

Waterfall is no good design paradigma.

Comment author: Salemicus 27 November 2014 06:26:28PM 2 points [-]

No plan survives contact with the enemy (or reality), but that doesn't mean you can just wing it. Of course you need a specific plan, but you also need the ability to change that plan as needed, in a controlled and sensible way. Realising the problems of advanced planning means you need to spend more time, not less, on working out what you are trying to do.

Comment author: elharo 27 November 2014 08:01:57PM 4 points [-]

I'm reminded of Eisenhower:

I tell this story to illustrate the truth of the statement I heard long ago in the Army: Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. There is a very great distinction because when you are planning for an emergency you must start with this one thing: the very definition of "emergency" is that it is unexpected, therefore it is not going to happen the way you are planning.

-- From a speech to the National Defense Executive Reserve Conference in Washington, D.C. (November 14, 1957) ; in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1957, National Archives and Records Service, Government Printing Office, p. 818 : ISBN 0160588510, 9780160588518

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 November 2014 06:36:19PM 1 point [-]

Realising the problems of advanced planning means you need to spend more time, not less, on working out what you are trying to do.

Then why does every modern startup do agile development instead of spending more time on planning?

Comment author: Salemicus 27 November 2014 06:49:42PM 3 points [-]

We do agile development where I work. That doesn't mean we don't plan. On the contrary. Agile development doesn't mean throwing a bunch of developers in a room and telling them "do whatever comes to mind" without any thought to what might come out of the process. It means constantly updating your plans, in an adaptive and iterative way.

Comment author: Jiro 26 November 2014 10:01:58PM 2 points [-]

no revolution ever produced the system that the people who threw the revolution planned to introduce

This is trivially true if you mean that no revolution produced the desired result up to the end of time. But then, the same is true of anything any human being does.

If you interpret it in a narrow, nontrivial way such as "no revolution produced a result that was close to the desired result and took at least as long enough to become unrecognizeable as the existing order would have taken to become unrecognizeable", then there are several candidates, including the American Revolution and several post-Soviet states (if you count leaving the USSR as a revolution).

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 November 2014 06:59:05AM 2 points [-]

I'm not saying "result" but system. The US constitution got written after the US got independent and not before.

several post-Soviet states (if you count leaving the USSR as a revolution)

Some countries of the USSR did copy the Western style of democracy and free markets. They could do that by letting other countries send people to tell them how to run their country. They didn't do that because they themselves knew how to create a democratic state with free markets.

This is trivially true if you mean that no revolution produced the desired result up to the end of time. But then, the same is true of anything any human being does.

If my project is to lock my apartment with my key, then I can be quite certain that the result with look roughly like I plan beforehand. The bigger the project the harder it is to plan everything beforehand.

As a result big software projects get these days not fully planned in advance via waterfall but get created in an agile way. Creating a substantial new political system as opposed to just copy some existing one, is much more complex than a software project and therefore even less doable via waterfall.

Comment author: hawkice 29 November 2014 08:28:42AM *  1 point [-]

Perhaps a more precise point is that the first American government failed. John Hanson and the other 9 Presidents of the United States under the articles of confederation were operating the true government they threw the revolution for. It failed almost immediately -- you would be astonished at how hard it was to convince someone to run the country, hence the extremely high turnover on Presidents.

I, and many other people here on Less Wrong, live in a massive, surprisingly enduring Plan B of a government.

[It's worth pointing out I like this one better, because we can find appropriately qualified staff, which is, ya know, pretty good. But alas, I was not a father of the American Revolution.]

Comment author: Jiro 29 November 2014 05:20:06AM *  1 point [-]

The US constitution got written after the US got independent and not before.

They wanted to create a government which was democratic, at least to a certain extent. They had a revolution. And they got one. It's true that some of the exact details weren't written down until after the Revolution, but they didn't have a revolution and then get a dictatorship, or something unsustainable, or find that all private property was abolished two years later--they got something which was clearly within the parameters they were trying to achieve.

They could do that by letting other countries send people to tell them how to run their country. They didn't do that because they themselves knew how to create a democratic state with free markets.

That's taking a very narrow interpretation of "planned to introduce". If you had asked them "when you overthrow the Communists, do you plan to have a free market system", they would have said yes. I count that as "planning to introduce a free market system, and getting what they planned for".

This is trivially true if you mean that no revolution produced the desired result up to the end of time. But then, the same is true of anything any human being does.

If my project is to lock my apartment with my key, then I can be quite certain that the result with look roughly like I plan beforehand.

The point of that sentence was to rule out saying "But if you look at the government over 200 years later, they clearly wouldn't have anticipated high tax rates and gay marriage, so they didn't get the system they wanted". If the system produced by the revolution is at least as stable as a non-revolutionary system, even if it has enough instability to show up after 200 years, it should count.

Comment author: jdgalt 01 December 2014 10:48:18PM *  1 point [-]

I don't buy it. We have many existing laws and spending programs that make us worse off than not having them (or, equivalently, leaving it up to the market rather than the taxpayers to provide them). The free market is known to work well enough, and broadly enough, that demanding "What would you replace it with?" when someone proposes ending one of those laws or programs is un-called-for. (If anyone really does doubt that the market will do better, the thing to do is to try it and see, not to demand proof that can't exist because the change in question hasn't been tried recently.) After a few repetitions, I simply lump the asker in with the kind of troll whose reply to every comment is "Cite?" and add him to my spam filter.

Comment author: Strange7 02 December 2014 05:10:59PM 3 points [-]

An explicit argument that lack of regulation would produce better results than the current regulatory system is not the same thing as disliking and actively opposing the current system yet having no idea what to replace it with.

Comment author: Lumifer 26 November 2014 05:23:46PM 1 point [-]

I don't particularly agree with this quote, but the link it comes out of is excellent.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 26 November 2014 10:16:46PM 4 points [-]

It's amazing!

We have to assess claims about oppression based on more than just what people say about themselves. If I took the idea of the infallibility of the oppressed seriously, I would have to trust that dragons exist. That is why it’s such an unreliable guide. (I half-expect the response, “Check your human privilege!”)

Comment author: James_Miller 02 November 2014 12:48:54AM 10 points [-]

This conclusory invocation to "science" w/o reference to any study is an IQ test for the American intelligentsia.

Joel S. Gehrke, Sr. on Twitter referencing American Ebola policy and fears.

Comment author: Grok_Narok 02 November 2014 02:27:52PM 15 points [-]

The man of knowledge must be able not only to love his enemies but also to hate his friends.

-- Friedrich Nietzsche

Comment author: Capla 11 November 2014 12:08:56AM 2 points [-]

As a Nietzsche-lover, why is this one here?

Comment author: Roxolan 11 November 2014 09:33:52AM 5 points [-]

I took it as a reminder of what was discussed in How to Actually Change Your Mind: confirmation bias, affective death spirals etc.

Comment author: ChristianKl 09 November 2014 08:54:39PM *  8 points [-]

If you kick a ball, about the most interesting way you can analyze the result is in terms of the mechanical laws of force and motion. The coefficients of inertia, gravity, and friction are sufficient to determine its reaction to your kick and the ball's final resting place, even if you can 'bend it like Beckham'. But if you kick a large dog, such a mechanical analysis of vectors and resultant forces may not prove as salient as the reaction of the dog as a whole. Analyzing individual muscles biomechanically likewise yields an incomplete picture of human movement experience.

Thomas W. Myers in Anatomy Trains - Page 3

Comment author: JQuinton 26 November 2014 06:53:14PM 9 points [-]

I was at this entrepreneur dinner and I met Melissa, and she’s this brilliant, amazing entrepreneur. She was like, “Everyone I know wants me to write a book but I don’t have time and I’m not a good writer and publishing is this awful process … can you help me?” So, of course — I’d like to think that I’m not an elitist snob but of course I am — and I start lecturing her about hard work and writing and the writer’s life and all this shit and she rolls her fuckin’ eyes. And I’m like, “what?” and she’s like, “Are you an entrepreneur? I’m an entrepreneur, too, and in my job I have to solve problems. Can you solve my problem or are you just going to lecture me about hard work?”

Tucker Max

Comment author: aarongertler 17 November 2014 05:26:01PM 10 points [-]

Teacher: So if you could live to be any age you like, what would it be?

Boy 2: Infinity.

Teacher: Infinity, you would live for ever? Why would you like to live for ever?

Boy 2: Because you just know a lot of people and make lots of new friends because you could travel to lots of countries and everything and meet loads of new animals and everything.

--Until (documentary)

http://mosaicscience.com/extra/until-transcript

Comment author: BloodyShrimp 18 November 2014 12:08:42AM 7 points [-]

While this is on My Side, I still have to protest trying to sneak any side (or particular (group of) utility function(s)) into the idea of "rationality".

Comment author: wedrifid 21 November 2014 01:00:54AM *  4 points [-]

While this is on My Side, I still have to protest trying to sneak any side (or particular (group of) utility function(s)) into the idea of "rationality".

To be fair, while it is possible to have a coherent preference for death far more often people have a cached heuristic to refrain from exactly the kind of (bloody obvious) reasoning that Boy 2 is explaining. Coherent preferences are a 'rationality' issue.

Since nothing in the quote prescribes the preference and instead merely illustrates reasoning that happens to follow from having preferences like those of Boy 2. If Boy 2 was saying (or implying) that Boy 1 should want to live to infinity then there would be a problem.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 November 2014 03:26:09PM 7 points [-]

People don't care how much you know until they know how much you care.

--Stephen Covey (in response to, paraphrased, 'how do I get other people to use these self-help techniques?')

Comment author: Salemicus 12 November 2014 11:37:10AM 4 points [-]

Economy is idealism in its most practical form.

Calvin Coolidge, Inaugural Address, 1924.

Comment author: dvolk 12 November 2014 07:59:35PM *  5 points [-]

In general, the limits imposed by working memory can be overcome by the use of more time-consuming strategies. Therefore, although performance might improve if working memory were larger, it might also improve if subjects simply thought more.

Baron, Thinking and Deciding

Comment author: TheOtherDave 12 November 2014 09:32:04PM 13 points [-]

One of the major symptoms of my stroke was seriously truncated working memory, and I spent months both training it back and learning to work around the limitations of it.

So i agree that there are strategies that can overcome the limits of working memory,though I wouldn't describe them as "thinking more"... it was more like saving state externally on a regular basis, and developing useful habits of interacting with that saved state. More generally, it's not a question of doing the same thing for longer, it's a question of doing different things that end up taking longer. It's "thinking differently, for longer."

That being said, though, I cannot begin to describe how much smarter I felt (and seemed) when the damage began to heal and I could start doing stuff in my head again.

Comment author: dvolk 13 November 2014 06:57:46PM 4 points [-]

It's a bit unclear without the context, but what he means is that subjects should think more about the task and realize that they need to, e.g. use a pen and paper.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 November 2014 09:03:34AM *  10 points [-]

More US citizens have married Kim Kardashian than have died of Ebola.

-- a member of the scientific collaboration I'm in.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 03 November 2014 10:30:10AM 23 points [-]

Marriage to Kim Kardashian is not contagious. The danger of Ebola is not to be measured by how many it has killed, but how many it may kill.

Comment author: Strange7 03 November 2014 01:41:48PM 25 points [-]

Marriage to Kim Kardashian is not contagious.

As far as we know! Perhaps it simply has a long incubation period, and transitive polyamory will be legally recognized some time in the 2020s.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 December 2014 09:31:06PM 1 point [-]

Hmm. Will I become a Mormon before or after I am married to Kim Kardashian?

Comment author: Weedlayer 03 November 2014 05:01:06PM 16 points [-]

Also more than have died from UFAI. Clearly that's not worth worrying over either.

I'm not terrified of Ebola because it's been demonstrated to be controllable in fairly developed counties, but as a general rule this quote seems incredibly out of place on less wrong. People here discuss the dangers of things which have literally never happened before almost every day.

Comment author: gwern 02 December 2014 07:30:14PM *  2 points [-]

And for all the scaremongering over so-called 'dinosaur killer' asteroids, total casualties are very low (even including Chelyabinsk)!

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 06 November 2014 11:49:54PM 4 points [-]

I sing the praises of common sense. Like Quine, I see science as continuous with common sense. It goes beyond common sense, but does not discard it. Rather than overthrow common sense, science explains it. Common sense provides us with a grounding in the world. It is the foundation upon which scientific realism rests. As we will see, it even provides protection against the anti-realist scepticism...

-- Science, Common Sense and Reality by Howard Sankey

For those curious the paper uses Arthur Eddington's two tables metapher which is also nice to illustrate this:

I have settled down to the task of writing these lectures and have drawn up my chairs to my two tables. Two tables! ... One of them has been familiar to me from earliest years. It is a commonplace object of that environment which I call the world ... It has extension; it is comparatively permanent; it is coloured; above all it is substantial ... Table No. 2 is my scientific table ... My scientific table is mostly emptiness. Sparsely scattered in that emptiness are numerous electric charges rushing about with great speed ... There is nothing substantial about my second table. It is nearly all empty space ... my second scientific table is the only one which is really there whatever ‘there’ may be. (Arthur Eddington, 1933, pp. xi-xiv)

Note Eddington’s words: the “scientific table is the only one which is really there”. This suggests that the solid, “substantial” table of common sense does not in fact exist. Only the insubstantial, mostly empty “scientific table” is real. Thus, the example of Eddington’s table appears to be a case in which science rejects common sense. The table of science is real. The table of common sense is an illusion.

There may well be a conflict between the scientific and commonsense description of the table. But Eddington’s contrast between two tables is misleading. There is only one table, the one revealed to us in commonsense experience. It may well be that the nature of the table is explained by science. Indeed, the scientific explanation of the solidity of the table may well displace the explanation provided by common sense. Nevertheless, Eddington’s “scientific table” is the very same table as the table presented by common sense.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 20 November 2014 05:31:22PM 3 points [-]

I find it entertaining that no matter how weird the deep scientific explanation is, that explanation can only be developed by scientists who have a naive sensory relationship with their instruments. They have to handle the instruments (or the computer controls) as though their hands and tools are made of solid stuff moving at easy-to-perceive speeds.

Comment author: DanielLC 21 November 2014 01:13:20AM 1 point [-]

That did cause some problems with quantum physics, when they assumed that their measuring equipment along with the scientists themselves weren't getting stuck in quantum superposition.

Comment author: Salemicus 14 November 2014 05:50:35PM 3 points [-]

It is the courage to make a clean breast of it in the face of every question that makes the philosopher. He must be like Sophocles' Oedipus, who, seeking enlightenment concerning his terrible fate, pursues his indefatigable inquiry even though he divines that appalling horror awaits him in the answer. But most of us carry with us the Jocasta in our hearts, who begs Oedipus, for God's sake, not to inquire further.

Arthur Schopenhauer, letter to Johann Goethe, 1819.

Comment author: [deleted] 14 November 2014 06:56:20PM 3 points [-]

If I may attempt to summarize:

The virtue of the philosopher lies in having the courage to keep questioning assumptions, despite the nagging fears that not only will nothing good come of it, but that it would be a happier life to remain in ignorance.

Comment author: rule_and_line 03 November 2014 05:06:07PM 5 points [-]

[S]kepticism should be directed at things that are actually untrue rather than things that are difficult to measure.

-- Bill James, American baseball writer and statistician.

Comment author: DuncanF 10 November 2014 08:38:05PM 4 points [-]

That strikes me as really ... odd.

To whom is the advice addressed? If something is actually untrue, and one has determined it to be untrue, then the task of being skeptical about it is finished.

I could probably find a loophole in the preceding statement, but it couldn't possibly be what Bill James was referring to.

As for directing skepticism at [claims depending upon] things that are difficult to measure, well that seems like one step away from directing skepticism at claims depending on little evidence. Which is surely what we want to do. Again, there's a loophole, but clearly not something Bill James was trying to point out.

Comment author: Lumifer 03 November 2014 05:30:26PM 12 points [-]

Scepticism is directed not at things, but at claims. And claims about things difficult to measure should face increased scepticism.

Comment author: rule_and_line 03 November 2014 11:49:59PM 3 points [-]

Interesting position! I can't speak for James, but I want to engage with this. Let's pretend, for the scope of this thread, that I made the statement about the proper role of skepticism.

I'm happy to endorse your wording. I agree it's more precise to talk about "claims" than "things" in this context.

Quick communication check. When you say "increased" you're implying at least two distinct levels of skepticism. From your assertion, I gather that difficult-to-measure claims like "there exist good leaders, people who can improve the performance of the rest of their team" will face your higher level of skepticism.

Could you give me an example of a claim that faces your lower level of skepticism?

Comment author: Lumifer 04 November 2014 02:18:02AM *  4 points [-]

When you say "increased" you're implying at least two distinct levels of skepticism.

Well, I'm actually treating scepticism as a continuous variable, let's say defined on non-negative real numbers for simplicity, where 0 means "I Believe!" and some sufficiently high number means "You're lying".

Could you give me an example of a claim that faces your lower level of skepticism?

"It's raining outside"

"This thing weights five pounds"

"Free-falling objects start to accelerate by about 9.8 m/s/s"

Comment author: alex_zag_al 01 November 2014 09:40:09PM *  4 points [-]

This is from a novel (Three Parts Dead by Max Gladstone). The situation is a man and a woman who have to work together but have trouble trusting each other because of propaganda from an old war:

[Abelard] hesitated, suddenly aware that he was alone with a woman he barely trusted, a woman who, had they met only a few decades before, would have tried to kill him and destroy the gods he served. Tara hated propaganda for this reason. Stories always outlasted their usefulness.

Comment author: AlanCrowe 03 November 2014 06:49:16PM 3 points [-]

Stories always outlasted their usefulness.

That is an interesting thought. When I try to ground it in contemporary reality my thoughts turn to politics. Modern democratic politics is partly about telling stories to motivate voters, but which stories have outlasted their usefulness? Any answer is likely to be contentious.

Turning to the past, I wrote a little essay suggesting that stories of going back to nature to live in a recent golden age when life was simpler may serve as examples of stories that have outlasted their usefulness by a century.

Comment author: grendelkhan 04 December 2014 10:35:24PM 1 point [-]

We're doing politics? Cool.

In a very short-term sense, "death panels". We provide a terrible end-of-life experience for people; we keep people barely at great expense in states of pain and confusion as long as possible even when this is not something that they would want; finite healthcare dollars are thus spent torturing the dying rather than fixing treatable problems in otherwise healthy people.

An attempt to make a dent in this (by at least getting people to talk about advance-care directives, for example) was derailed in a failed attempt to score some political points. As a result, this will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future, because it's no longer a technical problem, it's a Red Team/Blue Team thing. Well done, politics.

Comment author: Rangi 07 November 2014 08:59:45PM 2 points [-]

When confronting something which may be either a windmill or an evil giant, what question should you be asking? There are some who ask, "If we do nothing, and that is an evil giant, can we afford to be wrong?" These people consider themselves to be brave and vigilant. Some ask, "If we attack it wrongly, can we afford to pay to replace a windmill?" These people consider themselves cautious and pragmatic. Still others ask, "With the cost of being wrong so high in either case, shouldn't we always definitively answer the 'windmill vs. evil giant' question before we act?" And those people consider themselves objective and wise. But only a tiny few will ask, "Isn't the fact that we're giving equal consideration to the existence of evil giants and windmills a warning sign of insanity in ourselves?" It's hard to find out what these people consider themselves, because they never get invited to parties.

-- Windmill, PartiallyClips

Comment author: RichardKennaway 07 November 2014 09:10:59PM 11 points [-]

A good one, but a duplicate.

Comment author: Zubon 22 November 2014 03:35:52PM 2 points [-]

My little brother who's 7 was saying girls can’t be scientists, and my little sister who's 5 looked at him offended and said, “Princess Bubblegum is a girl and she's a scientist, Jonny!” and he said, “oh yeah…ok nvm,” and they continued eating breakfast like nothing.

Cleffairie on Tumblr (punctuation cleaned up)

The latest in a continuing series on immediate Bayesian updating in response to information. (Also viable as an example of an "unknown known," since he knew the counter-example but had not thought to apply it.)

Comment author: [deleted] 22 November 2014 03:51:54PM 2 points [-]

But but fictional evidence!

Comment author: Zubon 22 November 2014 04:46:57PM 6 points [-]

Excellent point, but his prior was even weaker.

Comment author: Vaniver 25 November 2014 03:46:22PM 1 point [-]

The wise man looks to the purpose of all actions, not their consequences; beginnings are in our power, but Fortune judges the outcome, and I do not grant her a verdict upon me.

--Seneca, on judging actions by expected value.

Comment author: Azathoth123 15 November 2014 03:10:19AM 0 points [-]

Truth [is] not a function of time or place. Intellectual fashion is. Therefor[e], distance yourself from any given temporally contingent worldview.

Nyan Sandwich

Comment author: pragmatist 15 November 2014 07:03:37AM *  4 points [-]

I don't think I understand this quote. What is a "temporally contingent worldview"? It can't simply mean any worldview that wasn't widely held in the past, because that would mean distancing oneself from pretty much all science. What, then?

Also, while I agree that the truth of a statement (that doesn't include spatio-temporal indexicals, either implicit or explicit) is not a function of time or place, widespread knowledge of a true statement usually varies with time and place. Not saying this justifies adoption of a temporally contingent worldview (since I'm not sure what is), but there does seem to be a bit of a non-sequitur in that quote.

Comment author: SaxophonesAndViolets 18 November 2014 10:26:59PM 1 point [-]

Without doing much in the way of research, which would spoil the game, I think the quote is urging people not to privilege the beliefs of the culture they live in. For example, many popular beliefs of the 1900's are clearly incorrect when viewed in hindsight; the logical conclusion is that, in a hundred years, many popular beliefs today will be seen as clearly incorrect by those future generations.

I can think of a few likely candidates off the top of my head. And sorry for the sesquipedalian loquaciousness. I keep trying to stop, but I can't!

Comment author: Lumifer 20 November 2014 10:21:49PM -1 points [-]

Presenter: [Snipping 75 minutes of reading without eye contact.] "...so as you can see, I have reconceptualized and reconsidered and -icized and -atized until this problem I talk about is clearly both like and unlike what Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Plato, and Arendt implied by choosing one word instead of a universe of other words in these few sentences no one else has really talked much about."

Theory Search Committee Member: "Well, certainly, but since we have clear answers about this philosophical problem deriving from Augustine's flirtation with manichaeism [snipping 15 minutes of bibliographic citations] ... what could we turn to in order to understand why what you have presented improves our understanding of the problem at hand?"

Audience Member In the Back: "Data."*

*This totally happened.

source

Comment author: Weedlayer 21 November 2014 12:27:32PM 3 points [-]

I'm not really getting anything from this other than "Mainstream philosophy, boo! Empiricism, yeah!"

Is there anything more to this post?

Comment author: Grok_Narok 02 November 2014 02:23:21PM *  -1 points [-]

A person can never be broken. Our built environment, our technologies, are broken and disabled. We the people need not accept our limitations, but can transcend disability through technological innovation.

-- Hugh Herr (in his talk about bionics)

Comment author: RowanE 07 November 2014 11:34:06PM 1 point [-]

This looks closer to a cheer for local memes (transhumanism) than a rationality quote. Can you give me a reason I'm wrong in thinking this?

Comment author: Salemicus 28 November 2014 11:28:24AM 0 points [-]

There is no such thing as an absolute despotism; it is only relative. A man cannot wholly free himself from obligation to his fellows. A sultan who cut off heads from caprice, would quickly lose his own in the same way. Excesses tend to check themselves by reason of their own violence. What the ocean gains in one place it loses in another.

Napoleon Bonaparte, from Napoleon: In His Own Words (1916).

Comment author: Vaniver 25 November 2014 03:35:44PM 0 points [-]

Ambition means tying your well being to what other people say or do.

Self-indulgence means tying it to the things that happen to you.

Sanity means tying it to your own actions.

--Marcus Aurelius

Comment author: dxu 20 November 2014 02:48:19AM *  1 point [-]

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.

Richard Feynman on the Challenger incident

Comment author: Vaniver 20 November 2014 04:23:56PM 5 points [-]
Comment author: dxu 20 November 2014 07:42:53PM 5 points [-]

Ah, crap. So, how does this work, exactly? Should I remove my comment?

Comment author: Vaniver 20 November 2014 08:32:23PM 5 points [-]

If you hit the 'retract' button (it's the circle with the diagonal line through it), then the post will have a strikethrough and the karma will be locked where it is now, and that's what people typically do. In the future, do a search for quotes before you post them (but keep posting quotes!).

Comment author: dxu 20 November 2014 08:35:20PM 3 points [-]

All right, cool, thanks. (I did actually search through the site to see if there were any repeats, but I guess I wasn't thorough enough in my search!)

Comment author: Roho 26 November 2014 09:34:43AM *  -2 points [-]

In commenting on the resistance he experienced to his own unorthodox views on health, Yale surgeon Dr. Bernie S. Siegel, author of the best-selling book Love, Medicine, and Miracles, asserts that it is because people are addicted to their beliefs. Siegel says this is why when you try to change someone's belief they act like an addict.

Holographic Model of The Universe

I first met this quote in a talk about quantum physics. Funny that it seems to come from an esoteric book. Crisis of faith, a drug withdrawal?

Comment author: RichardKennaway 26 November 2014 11:48:59AM *  8 points [-]

I first met this quote in a talk about quantum physics. Funny that it seems to come from an esoteric book.

If you can't get people to take something seriously, sometimes it's because it's plainly wrong. The concept of "addicted to their beliefs" relieves you of having to listen to them. "Addiction" is no more an explanation of anything than "emergence".

This is in a context of wondering why "Western science" (an absurd concept) "has devoted several centuries to not believing in the paranormal." I shall resist the tu quoque against the author and just say that I think that book is made of wrong.

The YouTube link is to a German-language presentation. I have only a fragment of German, but with Google Translate I gather that the speaker was (d.2011) a management trainer and motivational speaker. Not good qualifications for talking about quantum physics. "'Alles ist mit allem verbunden' ...ja ja und die Erde ist eine Scheibe," as the first comment says.

Comment author: Roho 26 November 2014 01:54:41PM 4 points [-]

Yes, and right after that he goes on:

I am lucky. I have always known there was more to the world than is generally accepted. I grew up in a psychic family[...]

...and seems not to notice that he himself has never questioned the beliefs with which he grew up?

The talk about quantum mechanics was nice for non-mathy laymen, although it barely scratches the surface. After reading the quantum physics sequence here, I sometimes like to try out stuff like this and compare them to it.

I would not try to use "addiction" as an explanation. I just liked the comparison between trying to get somebody to change a long-held belief and trying to get him to stop smoking.