Salemicus comments on Rationality Quotes November 2014 - Less Wrong

8 Post author: elharo 07 November 2014 07:07PM

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Comment author: Salemicus 27 November 2014 06:26:28PM 2 points [-]

No plan survives contact with the enemy (or reality), but that doesn't mean you can just wing it. Of course you need a specific plan, but you also need the ability to change that plan as needed, in a controlled and sensible way. Realising the problems of advanced planning means you need to spend more time, not less, on working out what you are trying to do.

Comment author: elharo 27 November 2014 08:01:57PM 4 points [-]

I'm reminded of Eisenhower:

I tell this story to illustrate the truth of the statement I heard long ago in the Army: Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. There is a very great distinction because when you are planning for an emergency you must start with this one thing: the very definition of "emergency" is that it is unexpected, therefore it is not going to happen the way you are planning.

-- From a speech to the National Defense Executive Reserve Conference in Washington, D.C. (November 14, 1957) ; in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1957, National Archives and Records Service, Government Printing Office, p. 818 : ISBN 0160588510, 9780160588518

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 November 2014 06:36:19PM 1 point [-]

Realising the problems of advanced planning means you need to spend more time, not less, on working out what you are trying to do.

Then why does every modern startup do agile development instead of spending more time on planning?

Comment author: Salemicus 27 November 2014 06:49:42PM 3 points [-]

We do agile development where I work. That doesn't mean we don't plan. On the contrary. Agile development doesn't mean throwing a bunch of developers in a room and telling them "do whatever comes to mind" without any thought to what might come out of the process. It means constantly updating your plans, in an adaptive and iterative way.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 27 November 2014 07:59:42PM 0 points [-]

Well, probably mostly because it's trendy. But as for why people who choose to do agile development for sensible reasons do so, I suspect it's because doing planning and data collection in such a way that they inform one another has better results than planning in the absence of data or data collection in the absence of a plan.

Why do you ask?

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 November 2014 10:08:02PM 0 points [-]

If you ask people to give you a clear alternative of a poltiical system then the only way to give you what you are asking is to give you something that migth work in theory but that's not based on empiric reality.

One of the big problem with Soviet style communism was that a central planner made a plan with wasn't well based on empiric reality.

As a result there are valid reasons for part of todays left to dislike the idea of central planning.