John_Maxwell_IV comments on Open thread, Nov. 3 - Nov. 9, 2014 - Less Wrong
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I found some interesting thoughts in the book Learned Optimism about the evolutionary usefulness of pessimism:
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If the weather is very cold and your brain's probability estimate of finding any game in the frost is low, maybe inactivity really is the best approach. But if I, as a modern human, am not calorie-constrained, then inactivity seems less wise.