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DanielLC comments on Artificial Addition - Less Wrong
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"Like shooting blindfolded at a distant target"
So long as you know where the target is within five feet, it doesn't matter how small it is, how far away it is, whether or not you're blindfolded, or whether or not you even know how to use a bow. You'll hit it on a natural twenty. http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/combatStatistics.htm#attackRoll
Logical fallacy of generalization from fictional evidence.
Damn right. And the same goes for the oft-quoted "million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten".