Nick Bostrom's self-sampling assumption treats us as a random sample from a set of observers, but this framework raises several paradoxes. Instead, why not treat the stuff we observe to be a random sample from the set of all stuff that exists? I elaborate on this proposal in a new essay subsection: "SSA on physics rather than observers?" At first glance, it seems to work better than any of the mainstream schools of anthropics. Comments are welcome.
Has this idea been suggested before? I noticed that Robin Hanson proffered something similar way back in 1998 (four years before Bostrom's Anthropic Bias). I'm surprised Hanson's proposal hasn't received more attention in the academic literature.
If I understand correctly, this approach to anthropics strongly favours a simulation hypothesis: the universe is most likely densely packed with computing material ("computronium") and much of the computational resource is dedicated to simulating beings like us. Further, it also supports a form of Doomsday Hypothesis: simulations mostly get switched off before they start to simulate lots of post-human people (who are not like us) and the resource is then assigned to running new simulations (back at a human level).
Have I misunderstood?
Yes, that's right. Note that SIA also favors sim hypotheses, but it does so less strongly because it doesn't care whether the sims are of Earth-like humans or of weirder creatures.
Here's a note I wrote to myself yesterday:
Like SIA, my PSA anthropics favors the sim arg in a stronger way than normal anthropics.
The sim arg works regardless of one's anthropic theory because it requires only a principle of indifference over indistinguishable experiences. But it's a trilemma, so it might be that humans go extinct or post-humans don't run early-seeming sims.
Giv... (read more)