Well, achieving better than human performance on a sufficiently wide benchmark. Preparing that benchmark is almost as hard as writing the code, it seems. Of course, any such estimates must be taken with a grain of salt, but I think that conceptually solid AGI projects have a significant chance by that time (including OpenCog), although previously I have argued that neuromorphic approaches are likely to succeed by 2030, latest.

Confidential stuff, it could be an army of 1000 hamsters. :) To be honest, I don't think teams more crowded than 5-6 are good for this kind of work. But please note that we are doing absolutely nothing that is dangerous in the slightest. It is a tool, not even an agent. Although I will be working on an AGI agent code as soon as we finish the next version of the "kernel", to demonstrate how well our code can be applied to robotics problems. Demo or die.

I didn't read it, but I heard that Elon Musk is badly influenced by it. I know of his papers prior to the book, and I've taken a look at the content, I know the material being discussed. I think he is vastly exaggerating the risks from AI technology. AI technology will be as pervasive as the internet, it is a very spook/military like mindset to believe that it will only be owned by a few powerful entities, who will wield it to dominate the world, or the developers will be so extremely ignorant that they will have AI agents escaping their labs and start killing people. Those are merely bad science fiction scenarios, like they have on Hollywood movies, it's not even good science fiction, because he is talking about very improbable events. An engineer who can build an AI smarter than himself probably isn't that stupid or reckless. Terminator/Matrix scenarios won't happen; they will remain in the movies.

Moreover, as a startup person, I think he doesn't understand the computer industry well, and fails to see the realistic (not comic book) applications of AI technology. AGI researchers must certainly do a better job at revealing the future applications. That will both help them find better funding and attracting public attention, and of course, obtaining public approval.

Thus, let me state it. AI really is the next big thing (after wearable/VR/3dprinting, stuff that's already taking off, I would predict). It's right now like a few years before the Mosaic browser showed up. I think that in AI there will be something for everybody, just like the internet. And Bostrom's fears are completely irrational and unfounded, it seems to me. People should cheer up if they think they can have the first true AI in just 5 years.