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Baughn comments on Superintelligence 17: Multipolar scenarios - Less Wrong
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Comments (38)
In the limit as time goes to infinity?
Yes. The evolutionary arguments seem clear enough. That isn't very interesting, though; how soon is it going to happen?
I'm inclined to think "relatively quickly", but I have little evidence for that, either way.
The only reason it might not be interesting is because it's clear; the limit case is certainly more important than the timeline.
That said, I mostly agree. The only reasonably likely third (not-singleton, not-human-wages-through-the-floor) outcome I see would be a destruction of our economy by a non-singleton existential catastrophe; for instance, the human species could kill itself off through an engineered plague, which would also avoid this scenario.
Not necessarily, there may be not enough economic stability enough to avoid constant stealing, which would redistribute resources in dynamical ways. The limit case could never be reached if forces are sufficiently dynamic. If the "temperature" is high enough.
Why? If humans are spreading out through the universe faster than the population is growing, then everyone can stay just ahead of the Malthusian trap.
That's not a realistic outcome. The accessible volume grows as t^3, at most, while population can grow exponentially with a fairly short doubling period. An exponential will always outrun a polynomial.
I could mention other reasons, but this one will do.