Sebastian_Hagen comments on Superintelligence 17: Multipolar scenarios - Less Wrong
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Note that multipolar scenarios can arise well before we have the capability to implement a SI.
The standard Hansonian scenario starts with human-level "ems" (emulations). If from-scratch AI development turns out to be difficult, we may develop partial-uploading technology first, and a highly multipolar em scenario would be likely at that point. Of course, AI research would still be on the table in such a scenario, so it wouldn't necessarily be multipolar for very long.