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Larks comments on Superintelligence 17: Multipolar scenarios - Less Wrong
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Comments (38)
Bostrom makes an interesting point that multipolar scenarios are likely to be extremely high variance: either very good or (assuming you believe in additivity of value) or very bad. Unfortunately it seems unlikely that any oversight could remain in such a scenario that could enable us to exercise or not this option in a utility-maximizing way.
Which 'option' do you mean?
'option' in the sense of a financial derivative - the right to buy an underlying security for a certain strike price in the future. In this case, it would be the chance to continue humanity if the future was bright, or commit racial-suicide if the future was dim. In general the asymmetrical payoff function means that options become more valuable the more volatile the underlying is. However, it seems that in a bad multipolar future we would not actually be able to (choose not to buy the security because it was below the strike price / choose to destroy the world) so we don't benefit from the option value.