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badger comments on Open thread, Nov. 17 - Nov. 23, 2014 - Less Wrong
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I am having strong doubts about this number. The paper cited is long on handwaving and seems to be entirely too fond of expressions like "should make economists’ jaws hit their desks" and "there appear to be trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk". In particular, there is the pervasive assumption that people are fungible so transferring a person from a $5,000 GDP/capita economy to a $50,000 GDP/capita economy immediately nets you $45,000 in additional GDP. I don't think this is true.
The paper cited is handwavy and conversational because it isn't making original claims. It's providing a survey for non-specialists. The table I mentioned is a summary of six other papers.
Some of the studies assume workers in poorer countries are permanently 1/3rd or 1/5th as productive as native workers, so the estimate is based on something more like a person transferred from a $5,000 GDP/capita economy to a $50,000 GDP/capita economy is able to produce $10-15K in value.
It looks to me as providing evidence for a particular point of view it wishes to promote. I am not sure of its... evenhandedness.
I think that social and economic effects of immigration are a complex subject and going about trillions lying on the sidewalk isn't particularly helpful.
Are they advocating for abolition of the minimum wage? Can one survive on 1/5th the average salery? Will the combination of inequality and race cause civil unrest?