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Manfred comments on What do you mean by Pascal's mugging? - Less Wrong
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Well, there's small and then there's small. Sadly, human brains are bad at handling this sort of distinction. One in 10,000 is only 13 or 14 coin flips in a row (note that 'number of coin flips' is a log scale, which is useful to help humans conceptualize big or small numbers). 14 coin flips is more like 1 coin flip than it's like a thousand coin flips.