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Jiro comments on What do you mean by Pascal's mugging? - Less Wrong
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I would consider Pascal's Mugging to be a situation with a low probability, a high impact, and where the low probability consists of several components, one of which is uncertainty about what the others are.
Telling me that some substance kills 2 of 10000 people is not Pascal's Mugging. Telling me that some substance kills everyone who takes it, but I know that there's a 99.998% chance you're a liar, is closer.
Edit: And I would consider all four scenarios Pascal's Mugging.