shminux comments on When the uncertainty about the model is higher than the uncertainty in the model - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 28 November 2014 06:12PM

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Comment author: shminux 28 November 2014 10:37:09PM * 2 points [-]

Re Black Monday, and possibly Castle Bravo, this site devoted to Managing the Unexpected seems to have some relevant research and recommendations.

And I don't think that your last example is in the same category of uncertain models with certain predictions.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 29 November 2014 03:05:21PM 1 point [-]

And I don't think that your last example is in the same category of uncertain models with certain predictions.

It is somewhat different, yes. Do you have a better example, still with huge negative impact?