Stuart_Armstrong comments on When the uncertainty about the model is higher than the uncertainty in the model - Less Wrong
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Interesting, and somewhat in line with my impressions - but do you have a short reference for this?
Sorry can't give you a reference. I wrote code a few years ago to look at this effect. I found that code and here is one figure I plotted. This is based on real stock price data for QCOM stock price 1999 through 2005. In this figure, I am looking at stock prices about 36 days apart.
Thanks, that's very useful!
Stuart, since you asked I spent a little bit of time to write up what I had found and include a bunch more figures. If you are interested, they can be found here: http://kazart.blogspot.com/2014/12/stock-price-volatility-log-normal-or.html
Cheers!