Most people are more optimistic than would be epistemically rational; they systematically underestimate the risks and overestimate their abilities. However, this kind of bias may be instrumentally useful: it makes people do things, even if most of the things will not bring the outcome they imagine. Because of some quirks of human brain, people who perceive reality better often have problem to motivate themselves. This hypothesis is called depressive realism.
But I believe that is just a part of the story, and maybe the less important part. It is the part of the story that fits into the just-world narrative. You get something (precision), you lose something (motivation), the harmony in the universe is restored.
The other part of the story is that better epistemic rationality can bring you some social problems. If your friends are not interested in being epistemically rational, you will feel alone with your thoughts. If you perceive how things can go wrong, and others deny it, of couse you see a danger where they don't. The danger is real, the helplessness is real (if a larger cooperation is needed to prevent the danger), the feeling of being alone (in your mental landscape) is real.
Story of my life.
So I've been rejected for conscription in the IDF because the psychiatrist thinks the Asperger's diagnosis I received as a child means that there is something wrong with me. Never mind that I've been examined very recently and been recommended for enlistment, he thinks that even though I probably don't have Asperger's, there must be something wrong with me because in the past I've had trouble socially. Of course I have no such problems now, but it's not as if he's going to risk his job in the face of anything less than perfection.
(This, btw, is what I meant when I said there was no such thing as a competent mental health professional- the entire system works against evidence-based methods.)
There has to be something wrong with this, some way that I can appeal. I have no idea of the Israeli legal process and I'm not sure if I could just write a letter to someone, or if I might need a lawyer. I can definitely prove that there is nothing psychologically wrong with me. I just have no idea where to turn, no idea how to do anything, and have no allies whatsoever. I feel like my life is collapsing, and I do have very good reasons personally for wanting to join the army. It's not just something I felt like doing.
This community obviously has better things to do than this sort of thing. But I feel like I'm going to explode if I can't talk to anyone, or get some idea of what I can do. I feel almost as if I'm becoming mentally ill.